Bracketology 2020 – Mudville Analytics

Bubble Update 3/5

It has been a busy weekend in bubble land.

West Virginia, Auburn, and USC moved up to Locks with their wins over Kansas State, Tennessee, and Arizona State respectively
Penn State and Oklahoma State got huge wins to move them up in the bubble pecking order
Nevada had a damaging home loss to UNLV which makes their position precarious
Mississippi State, Arizona State, North Carolina, and Pitt failed to get the wins they needed to solidify their positions
Utah State got their first Quad 1 win against Boise State

As I write this, Wisconsin and Rutgers haven’t played yet. Wisconsin’s game against Minnesota won’t help them if they win, but it will hurt them if they lose. If Rutgers can beat Northwestern, I think it will move them to a Lock.

I need to correct and clarify a couple of things from Friday’s post. One, I was unclear about the status of Florida Atlantic. I do consider them a lock. If someone else wins the Conference USA Tournament, the Owls will get in and that will be a bid steal.

Also, I neglected to include Utah State in my list of bubble teams. I’m not sure how that happened, but in any case, they are definitely in that group. In fact, with their win over Boise State, I think they would be in if the tournament started today.

With that, let’s run through the updated lists.

Locks (39):

Big 10 (7) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (5) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (2) – San Diego State, Boise State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

In for Now (2):

With their losses yesterday, I am moving Nevada and Mississippi State down into the bubble group. I am no longer convinced that they would be in if the tournament started today. The only two teams I am certain would be in today are:

Rutgers – I’m moving them to a lock if they can beat Northwestern today.

NC State – they probably benefited from not playing yesterday while a number of bubble teams around them lost. If they beat Virginia Tech on Wednesday, I’ll move them to a Lock.

Bubble Teams (5 bids available, 12 teams):

At this moment, my five bids would go to Nevada, Utah State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Penn State. Or maybe Wisconsin. With their loss to Oklahoma State yesterday, Texas Tech is off the list. Teams are listed in rank order.

Nevada – killer home loss to UNLV. They cannot afford to lose in the quarters of the Mountain West Tournament. Depending on what else happens, they may need to get to the Mountain West final.

Utah State – yes, they only have one Quad 1 win, but there is precedent for that. 8-1 against Quad 2 is outstanding. They are number 21 in the NET. No team ranked in the top 25 in the NET has ever been left out. They’re probably headed for a MWC Tournament semifinal rubber match with Boise State. A win there should clinch it for Utah State.

Mississippi State – they are hanging by a thread. Unless they make a run in the SEC Tournament, they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Oklahoma State – with their win over Texas Tech, I have them in right now, but it’s precarious. They need to beat Oklahoma on Wednesday, and then they’ll get a chance to end all doubt with a quarterfinal against Texas. If they don’t win that, they’ll be sweating it out.

Penn State – the Lions got their second straight big win on Sunday over Maryland. That puts them on the right side of the cut line, but their position is anything but safe. They need to win their first round game in the Big 10 Tournament, at a minimum.

Wisconsin – if they can avoid a bad loss against Minnesota today, their 6 Quad 1 wins will be hard to keep out. Their NET is 78, which would be the lowest to ever get an at-large bid.

Pitt – is it possible that the ACC could get only four teams in? Yup. I don’t see why Lunardi and Jerry Palm have Pitt in. What about their resume is better than, say, Wisconsin or Arizona State? Maybe they know something I don’t about the committee, but looking strictly at their resume, it’s not good enough. I say they have to beat Duke on Thursday or they’re not getting in.

North Carolina – they have to beat Boston College and Virginia to get to the semis of the ACC Tournament. Otherwise they are not getting in. Even that would not be a guarantee; it might take a run to the finals.

Michigan – Jerry Palm has them in right now. I don’t see it. Beat Indiana today, and now we’re talking. My guess is, that won’t be quite enough. They’ll need to get to the semis of the Big 10 Tournament.

Arizona State – they needed to beat USC and they didn’t. They’ll probably play Oregon in the Pac-12 quarters. Consider that an elimination game. My guess is that the winner will need to beat UCLA in the semis to get in.

Oregon – just maybe, if they get to the Pac-12 final.

Clemson – they need to pull for NC State to win on Wednesday, because beating Virginia Tech doesn’t do them any good. They have to beat the Wolfpack or they have no shot. To have a realistic shot, they have to make the ACC Tournament final.

Bracketology 2/19

Another week of college basketball is in the books. This week the NCAA came out with their top 16 seeds, which is kind of a sanity check for us bracketologists. I was more or less on target with one exception; I had UConn as a 3 seed over Marquette. I can certainly see why the committee would pick Marquette; they are 13-3 in the Big East, while UConn is only 9-7. However, UConn has in incredibly impressive non-conference resume; they beat Alabama, Iowa State, and Oregon on neutral courts, and they won at Florida, and the closest of those four games was 15 points.

But I do think the committee has a recency bias, and you might say that’s appropriate, although in my opinion games in November ought to count the same as games in February.

Here’s an update on ACC teams.

Virginia – headed for a 3 at this point, and more likely to move down than up.

Pitt – I have them as an 11 after the loss to Virginia Tech. That is lower than most prognosticators. Despite their ACC record, their overall resume isn’t that good. They have 6 sub-Quad I losses – the most of any serious tournament contender. They better not stumble down the stretch.

Miami – A solid 5 and more likely to go up than down. Historically, 5s get upset much more than 4s in the tournament. Favorable schedule remaining.

Clemson – I see them as not even close right now. Lunardi’s had them close to the cut line, but I don’t see how. Their NET is 80, they have no Quad I-A wins, and three Quad 4 losses. I’m not aware of any team receiving an at-large bid with three Quad 4 losses. They must win at NC State or at Virginia to even be relevant, and in my opinion they have to win out to get in.

NC State – I have the Wolfpack as a 10 seed, maybe one spot lower than the consensus. They’re not quite a lock, but they would have to fall apart to miss the tournament.

Duke – I have them as an 8. Very close to the 8/9 cut line in my model. They finish with NC State at home and at UNC, so still could move up.

North Carolina – I have the Tar Heels as the first team out, and in a way I think that makes them sound closer than they really are. As the commentators never tire of pointing out, they are 0-9 against Quad I opponents, and they WILL NOT get in without a Quad I win. They have two more chances with home games against Virginia and Duke. If they lose those, forget about it. If they can win one of those, and their two road games against Notre Dame and FSU, then it might come down to the ACC Tournament. My sense is, they won’t get in without two Quad I wins.

Everybody else – not close. Virginia Tech and Wake Forest would have to jump 10-15 teams to get in. Each needs to win out, and then probably do some damage in the ACC Tournament.

And now for the bracket:

Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
Texas, Arizona, Baylor, UCLA
Tennessee, UConn, Gonzaga, Virginia
Marquette, Indiana, Iowa State, Xavier
St. Mary’s, Kansas State, Miami, San Diego State
Creighton, Arkansas, Maryland, Northwestern
TCU, Texas A&M, Auburn, Iowa
Providence, Kentucky, Michigan State, Duke
Illinois, Boise State, Florida Atlantic, Memphis
Nevada, Rutgers, NC State, Oklahoma State
Missouri, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Pitt, USC, Utah State
College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
Kent State, Liberty, Utah Valley, Southern Miss
Yale, Iona, UC Irvine, Eastern Washington
Youngstown St., Colgate, Vermont, UNC Asheville
Samford, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Morehead State, Howard, Alcorn State, Merrimack

Last Four Byes: NC State, Oklahoma State, Missouri, West Virginia

Last Four In: Mississippi State, Pitt, USC, Utah State

First Four Out: UNC, Wisconsin, North Texas, Oregon

Next Four Out: Coll. of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), New Mexico, Penn State, Texas Tech

Bracketology 3/12

There were a few games involving bubble teams yesterday, in games they needed to win. Not because it helps their resume, but more because losing hurts it. NC State, Indiana, and Arkansas won; Stanford and Xavier did not. Stanford is now my last team in the field.

Seed	Team 1	Team 2	Team 3	Team 4	Team 5	Team 6
1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	Dayton
2	Villanova	Florida State	San Diego St.	Maryland
3	Creighton	Kentucky	Michigan St.	Duke
4	Seton Hall	Oregon	Auburn	Louisville
5	West Virginia	Butler	Wisconsin	Ohio St.
6	LSU	BYU	Penn State	Virginia
7	Iowa	Houston	Arizona	Marquette
8	Colorado	Illinois	Michigan	Rutgers
9	St. Mary’s	Providence	Florida	Oklahoma
10	Arizona St.	USC	Utah State	Wichita St.
11	Xavier	Texas Tech	Indiana	Richmond	UCLA	Stanford
12	North Texas	E. Tenn. St.	Yale	Vermont
13	Akron	New Mexico St.	Stephen F. Austin	E. Washington
14	Belmont	Hofstra	Liberty	Bradley
15	N. Kentucky	UC Irvine	N. Dakota St.	Little Rock
16	Boston U.	Winthrop	Siena	Robert Morris	Prairie View A&M	NC Central

Checking In: Boston U., Northern Kentucky, Robert Morris

Dropping Out: Colgate, Wright State, St. Francis (PA)

Last 4 Byes: Arizona State, Wichita St., Indiana, Texas Tech

Last 4 In: Xavier, UCLA, Richmond, Stanford

First 4 Out: Texas, NC State, Cincinnati, Mississippi State

Next 4 Out: Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Memphis, St. Louis

NC State’s 2020 Tournament Chances

I thought about copying and pasting this article from last year and see if anyone would notice… it does seems to be a rite of spring for Kevin Keatts’ Wolfpack – the Bubble Watch. And this year is no different. The Wolfpack’s profile is quite different from last year, when they played a weak non-conference schedule and lacked marquee wins. This year, they beat Wisconsin and Duke at home and Virginia on the road, so they have enough good wins, but sweeps at the hands of Carolina and Georgia Tech, along with a loss at Boston College, have seemingly cancelled out those good wins. And so the Wolfpack find themselves right around the cut line. Again.

There are lots of ways to look at this, but the one I like is this one. There are 68 teams in the field. 12 teams have already punched their tickets:

Atlantic Sun: Liberty
Big South: Winthrop
Colonial Athletic: Hofstra
Horizon League: Northern Kentucky
Ivy League: Yale
Missouri Valley: Bradley
Mountain West: Utah State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Southern: East Tennessee State
Summit League: North Dakota State
West Coast: Gonzaga

That leaves 56 bids. Of the 56, 12 more will come from the champions of one-bid leagues:

America East
Big Sky
Big West
Conference USA
MAAC
MAC
MEAC
Patriot
Southland
Southwestern Athletic
Sun Belt
WAC

So that leaves 44 bids, 36 at-large bids and 8 bids for the champions of the multi-bid leagues whose tournaments are not yet decided:

ACC
American Athletic
Atlantic 10
Big 10
Big 12
Big East
PAC 12
SEC

I am making the call that there are 36 locks for those 44 bids:

Arizona
Auburn
Baylor
Butler
BYU
Colorado
Creighton
Dayton
Duke
Florida
Florida State
Houston
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
LSU
Marquette
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Penn State
Providence
Rutgers
St. Mary’s
San Diego State
Seton Hall
USC
Villanova
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin

I feel a little bit nervous calling Rutgers and Oklahoma locks, but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

So we’re down to 8 bids left. And I would say that there are 11 teams in serious contention for those 8 bids:

Arizona State
Cincinnati
Indiana
NC State
Richmond
Stanford
Texas
Texas Tech
UCLA
Wichita State
Xavier

Now, always keep in mind the possibility of bid stealers. The way to think about bid stealers is this: if any team that is a) from one of the 8 multi-bid leagues above and b) NOT on the “Locks” list above wins a conference tournament – they grab one of the 8 up-for-grabs bids, leaving one less for everyone else.

If that doesn’t happen, then 8 of the 11 teams above will get in. There are still a couple of other teams that can’t be ruled out for an at-large if they make a deep run in the conference tourney – Mississippi State, possibly Purdue. But most likely, the 8 bids will come from those 11 teams.

Of those 11 teams, the conventional wisdom, which I agree with, is that 4 of the 11 – Arizona State, Indiana, Texas Tech, and Xavier will probably get in, barring an early conference tournament loss. Now I want to say that this is not a guarantee. None of the 11 teams I listed should be shocked to not hear their name called on Selection Sunday. That’s why I didn’t call them Locks. TCU was in a similar position last year, and they were left out. But I think that unless those teams get upset by a bad team in their tournaments, they will probably make it.

That leaves 4 bids to be split among Cincinnati, NC State, Richmond, Stanford, Texas, UCLA, and Wichita State.

Cincinnati and Wichita State would meet in the semifinals of the AAC Tournament on Saturday if both win on Friday. It’s tempting to call that an “elimination game”. I’m not certain of that, but I think Cincinnati especially would have a real uphill climb if they don’t win that game.

Richmond plays the winner of Davidson-LaSalle on Thursday, then probably Rhode Island in the semis if they win. I think if the Spiders can beat Rhode Island, they’ll probably make it. If not, they’re in trouble.

UCLA and Stanford may also be headed for an elimination game in the quarters of the Pac-12 tomorrow. Stanford first has to beat Cal tonight. UCLA has a very strange resume. They’re really low in the NET (#76) and they have some terrible losses – but they have 6 Quadrant 1 wins and, in my opinion, are in the field right now. I think there is a decent chance that both of these teams make it, but the loser of tomorrow’s game is going to be sweating.

Texas is also a weird team. They’re also low in the NET (#69), but for a different reason – they’ve been blown out a lot. They lost to West Virginia by 38, Providence by 22, Georgetown by 16, Iowa State by 29, and Oklahoma State by 22. BUT, they have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, 4 of which are on the road, and a home win against West Virginia. So good luck figuring them out. And, as luck would have it, they are matched up with… Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament. I’m loving these bubble team elimination games. I am saying that if Texas loses, they are out. Texas Tech I think could still have a chance with a loss.

So there you have it. If you’re a Wolfpack fan, you’re rooting for all of those other 10 teams to lose, and lose early. If they play each other, you’re rooting for the most vulnerable teams – probably Cincinnati and Texas – to lose.

And then of course you’re hoping for a win over Duke on Thursday, which would move the Wolfpack into Lock territory. If they don’t beat Duke, they are going to need a lot of help and a lot of luck, and I wouldn’t put their chances at more than 25%.

Bracketology 3/9

Through games of Sunday:

Seed	Team 1	Team 2	Team 3	Team 4	Team 5	Team 6
1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	Dayton
2	Villanova	Florida State	San Diego St.	Maryland
3	Creighton	Kentucky	Oregon	Duke
4	Seton Hall	Michigan St.	Auburn	Louisville
5	West Virginia	Butler	Wisconsin	Ohio St.
6	Colorado	BYU	Iowa	Virginia
7	Penn State	Houston	LSU	Illinois
8	Marquette	Arizona	Michigan	USC
9	Oklahoma	Providence	Florida	Rutgers
10	Arizona St.	St. Mary’s	Xavier	Wichita St.
11	Stanford	Indiana	Texas Tech	Utah State	UCLA	Richmond
12	North Texas	E. Tenn. St.	Yale	Vermont
13	Akron	Bradley	Stephen F. Austin	Hofstra
14	Belmont	New Mexico St.	Liberty	E. Washington
15	Colgate	UC Irvine	N. Dakota St.	Little Rock
16	Wright St.	Winthrop	Siena	St. Francis (PA)	Prairie View A&M	NC Central

Checking In: Richmond

Dropping Out: Texas

Last 4 Byes: Xavier, Arizona State, Wichita St., Stanford

Last 4 In: UCLA, Texas Tech, Indiana, Richmond

First 4 Out: Texas, NC State, Cincinnati, Mississippi State

Next 4 Out: Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Memphis, Northern Iowa

Bracketology 3/7

Key games from yesterday:

Northern Iowa got blown out by Drake in the first round of the MVC Tournament. Can they get an at-large bid?
NC State beat Wake Forest, in a game that helped them… none.
Richmond won at Duquesne, a solid Quad 2 win.
Favorites who won included Winthrop, San Diego State, Yale, Belmont, and Utah State.

Here is the current bracket (automatic bids in bold):

Seed	Team 1	Team 2	Team 3	Team 4	Team 5	Team 6
1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	San Diego St.
2	Villanova	Florida State	Dayton	Maryland
3	Creighton	Seton Hall	Louisville	Duke
4	Oregon	Michigan St.	Ohio St.	Kentucky
5	Auburn	Butler	Wisconsin	BYU
6	Colorado	Penn State	Iowa	West Virginia
7	Marquette	Arizona	LSU	Michigan
8	Illinois	Houston	Virginia	Providence
9	Xavier	USC	St. Mary’s	Rutgers
10	Arizona St.	Florida	Oklahoma	Indiana
11	Stanford	Wichita St.	Texas Tech	Utah State	UCLA	Texas
12	North Texas	E. Tenn. St.	Yale	Vermont
13	Akron	Bradley	Stephen F. Austin	Hofstra
14	Belmont	New Mexico St.	Liberty	E. Washington
15	Colgate	UC Irvine	N. Dakota St.	Little Rock
16	Wright St.	Winthrop	Siena	St. Francis (PA)	Prairie View A&M	NC Central

Checking In: Bradley

Dropping Out: Northern Iowa

Last 4 Byes: Oklahoma, Arizona State, Stanford, Wichita St.

Last 4 In: Texas Tech, Texas, UCLA, Utah State

First 4 Out: Purdue, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Richmond

Next 4 Out: NC State, Northern Iowa, Mississippi State, Tennessee

Bracketology 3/6

Last night’s roundup:

Ohio State beat Illinois – I moved the Buckeyes up one line
San Diego State beat Air Force
Michigan beat Nebraska
Houston lost at UConn – I moved them down one line
Wichita St. lost at Memphis, moving the Shockers down one line
Utah State beat New Mexico
Stanford lost at Oregon State, moving the Cardinal down to an 11
Arizona State had a pretty bad home loss to Washington, moving them down to a 10
Arizona held serve against Washington State at home
Oregon blew out Cal

Seed	Team 1	Team 2	Team 3	Team 4	Team 5	Team 6
1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	San Diego St.
2	Villanova	Florida State	Dayton	Maryland
3	Creighton	Seton Hall	Louisville	Duke
4	Oregon	Michigan St.	Ohio St.	Kentucky
5	Auburn	Butler	Wisconsin	West Virginia
6	Colorado	Penn State	Arizona	BYU
7	Marquette	Iowa	LSU	Michigan
8	Illinois	Houston	Virginia	St. Mary’s
9	Xavier	USC	Providence	Rutgers
10	Arizona St.	Florida	Oklahoma	Wichita St.
11	Stanford	Indiana	Texas Tech	Utah State	UCLA	Texas
12	N. Iowa	E. Tenn. St.	Yale	Vermont
13	Akron	North Texas	Stephen F. Austin	Hofstra
14	Belmont	New Mexico St.	Liberty	E. Washington
15	Colgate	UC Irvine	N. Dakota St.	Little Rock
16	Wright St.	Winthrop	Siena	St. Francis (PA)	Prairie View A&M	NC Central

Checking In: NC Central

Dropping Out: NC A&T

Last 4 Byes: Wichita St., Florida, Stanford, Indiana

Last 4 In: Texas Tech, Texas, Utah State, UCLA

First 4 Out: Purdue, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Richmond

Next 4 Out: NC State, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Tennessee

Bracketology 3/5

Games of significance:

Xavier lost at Providence. Xavier is still in for now, but if they lose to Butler on Saturday, they should get a bit nervous.
Indiana beat Minnesota at home. Every little bit helps.
Butler blew out St. John’s at home.
Auburn was upset at home by Texas A&M. I still have them as a 5 seed.
Arkansas got a badly needed home win against LSU. I moved them into the First 4 Out and moved NC State down to Next 4 Out.
Florida won at Georgia, solidfying their position.
Kansas beat TCU. They’re still #1.
Creighton got back on track with a win over Georgetown.
Villanova won at Seton Hall. The Big East teams continue to beat up on each other. Nobody seems to want that #2 seed.
Virginia beat Miami 47-45. Seems like they’ve won about 27 games in a row by that score.
Florida State had a great comeback to win at Notre Dame.
Wisconsin beat Northwestern.
Dayton blew out Rhode Island. Rhode Island is done unless they win the A10 tourney.

The bracket:

Seed	Team 1	Team 2	Team 3	Team 4	Team 5	Team 6
1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	San Diego St.
2	Villanova	Florida State	Dayton	Maryland
3	Creighton	Seton Hall	Louisville	Duke
4	Oregon	Michigan St.	Butler	Kentucky
5	Auburn	Ohio St.	Wisconsin	West Virginia
6	Colorado	Penn State	Arizona	BYU
7	Marquette	Iowa	Houston	Michigan
8	Illinois	LSU	Virginia	Arizona St.
9	Wichita St.	St. Mary’s	Providence	Rutgers
10	USC	Florida	Stanford	Xavier
11	Oklahoma	Indiana	Texas Tech	Utah State	UCLA	Texas
12	N. Iowa	E. Tenn. St.	Yale	Vermont
13	Akron	North Texas	Stephen F. Austin	Hofstra
14	Belmont	Colgate	Liberty	E. Washington
15	New Mexico St.	UC Irvine	N. Dakota St.	Little Rock
16	Wright St.	Winthrop	Siena	St. Francis (PA)	Prairie View A&M	NC A&T

Checking In: No one

Dropping Out: No one

Last 4 Byes: Xavier, Florida, Oklahoma, Indiana

Last 4 In: Texas Tech, Texas, Utah State, UCLA

First 4 Out: Purdue, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Richmond

Next 4 Out: NC State, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Tennessee

Bracketology 3/4

First, a rundown of the games involving relevant teams from the past 2 days:

NC State lost at Duke on Monday, which doesn’t hurt the Wolfpack much, but they can’t afford to tread water at this point
Texas Tech lost in overtime at Baylor on Monday, in a game that likely would have moved them off the bubble
South Carolina beat Mississippi State. Neither team has much of a chance at this point
Michigan State won at Penn State. The Spartans are moving into 3-seed territory.
Rutgers got a huge win over Maryland which solidifies their position in the field and hurts Maryland’s chances for 2 seed.
Cincinnati beat South Florida at home, which doesn’t really help them at all.
Richmond beat Davidson at home, a decent Quadrant 2 win that helps them a little.
Marquette lost at Depaul. They’re still OK, but dropping into 8-seed territory.
Alabama lost to Vanderbilt at home, ending any hopes the Tide may have had for an at-large bid
Kentucky lost at home to Tennessee, hurting their chances for a 2 seed.
Purdue got a huge win they needed at Iowa. The big question is, can they get in at 2 games over .500?
Texas kept their hot streak going with a win at Oklahoma. The Longhorns are now more solidly in the field, while the Sooners are slipping towards the cut line.
West Virginia got a road win against Iowa State

Here’s the updated bracket (automatic bids in bold):

Seed	Team 1	Team 2	Team 3	Team 4	Team 5	Team 6
1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	San Diego St.
2	Seton Hall	Florida State	Dayton	Maryland
3	Creighton	Villanova	Louisville	Duke
4	Oregon	Michigan St.	Butler	Kentucky
5	Auburn	Ohio St.	Wisconsin	West Virginia
6	Colorado	Penn State	Iowa	BYU
7	Marquette	Arizona	Houston	Michigan
8	Illinois	LSU	Virginia	Xavier
9	Arizona St.	St. Mary’s	Providence	Rutgers
10	USC	Oklahoma	Stanford	Wichita St.
11	Florida	Indiana	Texas Tech	Utah State	UCLA	Texas
12	N. Iowa	E. Tenn. St.	Yale	Vermont
13	Akron	North Texas	Stephen F. Austin	Belmont
14	Hofstra	Colgate	Liberty	E. Washington
15	New Mexico St.	UC Irvine	Wright State	Colgate
16	N. Dakota St.	Winthrop	Siena	St. Francis (PA)	Prairie View A&M	NC A&T

Checking In: UCLA

Dropping Out: Cincinnati

Last 4 Byes: Stanford, Wichita St., Florida, Indiana

Last 4 In: Texas Tech, Texas, Utah State, UCLA

First 4 Out: NC State, Cincinnati, Purdue, Richmond

Next 4 Out: Rhode Island, Arkansas, Mississippi State, South Carolina

Bubble Watch 3/4

——————– SAFELY IN FOR NOW ————————

1) Rutgers

The Scarlet Knights got a huge win on Tuesday against Maryland, solidifying their position. Their ratings are quite good, and they now have four really good wins at home against Seton Hall, Penn State, Wisconsin and Maryland. Should be enough to overcome their 1-10 record away from home. A win at Purdue would end all doubt, but I think they would probably be OK with a loss.

2) St. Mary’s

The Gaels have decent ratings in the 30s, played a decent non-conference schedule including neutral court wins over Wisconsin and Arizona State, and are 10-4 away from home. Their blemishes are only 3 Quadrant I wins and 3 sub-Quadrant I losses, but in this field, I think they’re in. Their regular season is over. Just don’t lose in the first round of the WCC Tourney, and they should be OK.

3) Providence

The Friars have a bit of an odd resume. They have a total of 7 Quadrant 1 wins, including road wins against Villanova, Butler, and Marquette, and home wins against Creighton and Seton Hall. They’ve basically beaten all the best teams in the Big East. What’s wrong, you ask? 4 Quadrant 3/4 losses, including a rare Quadrant 4 loss to Long Beach State, who is one of the worst teams in the country. But there are just too many good wins. They just have to score maybe one more win to make sure their record doesn’t get close to .500.

4) USC

The Trojans have a solid if unspectacular resume, with 4 Quadrant 1 wins and only 2 sub-Quadrant 1 losses. A loss to UCLA on Saturday would not be advisable.

5) Oklahoma

The Sooners didn’t need that loss to Texas. Their resume is quite similar to USC’s. If they avoid upsets (read: TCU on Saturday), I’ll think they’ll get in.

————————— LAST 4 BYES ——————————-

6) Stanford

The Cardinal added a jewel to what had been an unremarkable resume with their win over Colorado. They now have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, a 2-3 Quadrant 2 record, and one bad loss at Cal. They played a weak non-conference schedule overall, but did get a neutral court win against Oklahoma. Win at Oregon State on Thursday, and they should be safely in.

7) Wichita State

The Shockers got a solid road win at SMU on Sunday. Their best wins are at UConn and at Oklahoma State, which aren’t all that impressive. However, they will get credit for playing OSU, West Virginia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and VCU in non-conference, and winning 4 out of those 5 games. That, plus a lack of any truly objectionable losses, keeps them safely in the field. Winning one of their last 2 should be enough.

8) Florida

The Gators don’t have any great wins, but they do have 4 Quadrant I wins overall, and no really bad losses. Their ratings are generally strong. They’re in right now.

9) Indiana

The Hoosiers have played 15 Quadrant 1 games, winning 6, including 2 shiny wins against Michigan State and Florida State. 6-9 doesn’t sound that great, but when it comes to Quadrant 1 games, wins help more than losses hurt. They also don’t have any bad losses. They didn’t do themselves any favors with the loss to Illinois, but I think they’re OK for now. They need to beat Minnesota on Wednesday.

—————————– LAST 4 IN ———————————-

10) Texas Tech

Texas Tech is 20th in the NET, 21st in BPI, and 23rd on KenPom. It goes downhill from there… they do have a really good neutral court win over Louisville, and a home win over West Virginia. They also don’t have any really bad losses. Their last 2 games are against Baylor and Kansas; a win in either would make them a lock. If they lose them both, they’re at 18-13 going into the Big 12 Tournament and likely in need of wins.

11) Texas

Shaka Smart’s Longhorns are coming on strong, and their wins at Oklahoma and at Texas Tech vault them into the field. They have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, including a win at Purdue, and no Quadrant 3 losses. They have 4 Quadrant 2 losses, which is more than you would like. They’ve had too many non-competitive games – losing by 38 to West Virginia, 22 to Providence, 29 to Iowa State – and you wonder how much that will affect them. They need to hold serve against Oklahoma State this weekend.

12) Utah State

The Aggies have an odd resume with only 4 Quadrant 1/2 wins. You would think a team like that would have no chance to get an at-large bid, but they have one really good thing going for them. They scheduled LSU and Florida outside the league on neutral courts – and won both games. So they have a really good “made the most of their opportunities” argument. Their regular season is over. Given the weakness of the teams they’re competing with, I think they’re probably in, but a good showing in the Mountain West Tourney would help. No team with 4 Quadrant 1/2 wins can feel safe until they see their name in the bracket.

13) UCLA

As I keep looking at UCLA, I’ve decided to put them in the field. The Bruins are plagued with really low rankings – 75 in the NET and 94 (!) in the BPI. That in and of itself isn’t enough to keep them out. They have 6 Quadrant 1 wins, including a sweep of Arizona and a win at Colorado. But when they’ve lost, they’ve lost big, which probably contributes to those low rankings. They have too many bad losses – UNC, Washington State, and home losses to Hofstra and Cal State Fullerton. But somehow I think they sneak in. Big game at USC this weekend.

CUT LINE ————– (FIRST FOUR OUT) ————–CUT LINE

14) NC State

The Wolfpack have a blowout home win over Duke, and 3 other Quadrant 1 wins. Their win at UNCG just dropped to a Quadrant 2. They have enough good wins to get in, but the problem is, they have 7 Quadrant 2/3 losses, including sweeps by Georgia Tech and UNC, and a loss at Boston College.

Wolfpack fans can perhaps be encouraged that their resume is quite similar to 2019 St. John’s, which was a controversial at-large selection. They can get a lot of mileage out of that Duke win, but all those bad losses seem to have neutralized it. I just don’t know. I think they’re right on the edge.

15) Cincinnati

The more I look at the Bearcats resume, the less I like it. The good news is the Bearcats are 6-0 in Quadrant 2 games, which is good. The bad news is… well, most everything else. Their best wins are at home against Houston and at Wichita State. They have 4 Quadrant 3 losses, which is damaging. Their only decent non-conference win is at home against Tennessee. Their last regular season game isn’t going to help them, but will hurt them if they lose. Their best chance is to get a good win the AAC Tourney, but it’s possible they could sneak in by not screwing up while the teams around them do.

16) Purdue

The Boilers really helped themselves with a huge win at Iowa. They’ve played 11 games against the upper tier Quadrant 1 teams – and gone 2-9, the wins being a home blowout of Michigan State and the Iowa win. And all 9 of the losses were away from home. In the rest of their games, they’ve done quite well, notching 3 other Quadrant 1 wins. They are very high in the ratings. All they are lacking is wins. You get the feeling if they could have replaced a couple of those tough games with easy games and their record were 18-12 instead of 16-14, they’d be in. They need to beat Rutgers on Saturday, and then we’ll talk.

17) Richmond

The Spiders got a decent win over Davidson on Tuesday, their 5th Quadrant 1/2 win. They have a shot.

———————— NEXT FOUR OUT ——————————-

18) Rhode Island

Rhody had a really damaging home loss to St. Louis on Sunday. Their ratings are OK, but they have only 1 Quadrant 1 win, and that was at VCU. Quadrant 2/3/4 look fine, but overall, it isn’t enough.

19) Arkansas

Now we’re getting into the seriously flawed teams. The Razorbacks are sitting at 6-10 in the SEC. They did win at Indiana and at Georgia Tech outside the conference. But there is just not a lot to like here. They don’t have any sub-Quadrant 2 losses, so that helps. The Georgia Tech win could become a Quadrant 1 if the Jackets jump up a couple of spots in the NET. They really need to beat LSU on Wednesday; otherwise they’ll go into the SEC Tourney needing wins.

20) Mississippi State

The Bulldogs have a good win at Florida, but only 1 other Quadrant 1 win. They have 2 bad losses to Quadrant 3 teams. 2 Quadrant 1 wins and 2 Quadrant 3 losses doesn’t add up to a good enough resume. The loss to South Carolina pretty much cooked their goose.

21) South Carolina

Not gonna happen.