bracketology – Page 3 – Mudville Analytics

Bracket Update 3/11

With one day left until Selection Sunday, most teams’ fate is sealed. I now have 40 locks, five teams that are Probably In, and five teams in competition for the last spot in the field.

I have to admit a couple of mea culpas. One is, I have “de-locked” Providence, which should never happen. Once a team is a lock, they should stay a lock. But Providence has really fallen apart down the stretch and I now think it’s possible, though unlikely, that they could miss the field.

The other is, I’ve added Vanderbilt to the list of bubble teams. When I looked at it last week, I thought they were too far out to possibly get an at-large bid. With their win over Kentucky, that now seems possible.

On to the lists.

Locks (40):

Big 10 (8) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (4) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (3) – San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

Probably In (5):

90% Chance: Rutgers

80% Chance: Mississippi State, NC State

75% Chance: Providence

70% Chance: Oklahoma State

Last Bid:

At this point, there are five teams who could conceivably hear their names called for the last bid: Nevada, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Arizona State, and Pitt. Of the five, only Vanderbilt is still playing. If they win two more games, they are the SEC champions and there is no more debate. Even if they win today against Texas A&M but lose in the final, I think they will get the bid. But let’s assume Vandy loses today. Then I’m going with Clemson, with Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, and Pitt following in that order.

This is a bit of a gut feel pick. My model says that Nevada has the best resume. But they finished the season really poorly and I think the committee will deduct something for that. I also think there has been a groundswell of support for Clemson from various sources in the media, although maybe that’s just my ACC bias, and that may have an impact on the committee. There may also be an element of unconscious sympathy towards the ACC, especially if they are going to leave Pitt out, as I think they will.

Keep in mind that bid stealing is still possible. Vanderbilt could win the SEC tournament, Ohio State is alive in the Big 10 Tournament, and a couple of teams are still alive in the AAC Tournament who could grab that last bid. If there are multiple bid thefts, I think Oklahoma State is the most likely of the Probables to be left out.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold, tickets punched underlined):

Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
UCLA, Texas, Gonzaga, Arizona
Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Tennessee
Xavier, Kansas State, San Diego State, Virginia
Indiana, St. Mary’s, Texas A&M, Duke
Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Miami
Michigan State, Creighton, Northwestern, Florida Atlantic
Arkansas, West Virginia, Memphis, Boise State
Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Auburn
Illinois, Iowa, Penn State, USC
Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson
College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
Kent State, Iona, Yale, Furman
Louisiana, Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont
Colgate, UNC Asheville, Southern Utah, Montana State
Northern Kentucky, Grambling, Norfolk State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson

Last Four Byes: Penn State, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson

First Four Out: Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, Pitt

Bubble Watch 3/9

Moving off the bubble list yesterday was NC State, who moved to a Lock with their win over Virginia Tech. Although ironically, NC State beat the Hokies so badly that they knocked them out of the top 75 in the NET – which means the Wolfpack’s win in Blacksburg is no longer a Quad 1. But it doesn’t matter. They’re in.

Bubble Team Ranking:

In 6 – Utah State

In 5 – Oklahoma State

In 4 – Nevada

In 3 – Penn State

In 2 – Mississippi State

In 1 – Pitt

Out 1 – Rutgers

Out 2 – Arizona State

Out 3 – North Carolina

Out 4 – Wisconsin

Out 5 – Oregon

Out 6 – Michigan

Out 7 – Clemson

Commentary on today’s games:

Utah State – next game today vs. New Mexico (NET 50)

With a win – this is an interesting one, because right now New Mexico is 50 in the NET, which is the cutoff for a Quad 1 win on a neutral court. But beating them may knock them down in the NET, making it a Quad 2. The vagaries of the NET. I’m not quite ready to call the Aggies a Lock with a win here, but they’re headed in that direction.
With a loss – by the same logic, if New Mexico wins, they probably will move up in the NET and this becomes a Quad 1 loss for Utah State. I think they still have a chance and it will depend on what the other teams do.

Oklahoma State – next game today vs. Texas (NET 9)

With a win – OSU becomes a lock.
With a loss – OSU finishes their regular season at 18-15. Losing to Texas on a neutral court doesn’t really hurt you, but the Cowboys are on thin ice as it is. They will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Nevada – next game today vs. San Jose State (NET 96)

With a win – this is a Quad 2, just barely. It helps marginally, I guess, but it’s really more about avoiding the loss.
With a loss – Nevada is in trouble if they lose this game. They too will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Penn State – next game today vs. Illinois (NET 33)

With a win – this is a solid Quad 1 opponent. I can’t say it makes them a Lock, but they would go to the head of the bubble pack, and the other teams would have to do some extraordinary things to keep the Nittany Lions out.
With a loss – a Quad 1 loss doesn’t really hurt their resume, but they’re on thin ice as it is. Probably no better than 50-50 they get in if they lose today.

Mississippi State – next game today vs. Florida (NET 59)

With a win – Quad 2 opponent. Every little bit helps, but certainly doesn’t make them a Lock.
With a loss – I don’t like their chances. It would depend on what other teams do.

Pitt – next game today vs. Duke (NET 25)

With a win – I’m not sure my model would agree, but my gut says Pitt is a Lock if they win. Duke is really playing well right now. A neutral court win over the Blue Devils is the final validation Pitt needs.
With a loss – I really don’t know. I don’t think they’ll make it, but other Bracketologists have them higher for whatever reason. They certainly look like a tournament team with the “eye test”, but I’m not sure the committee cares.

Rutgers – next game today vs. Michigan (NET 54)

With a win – it’s a Quad 2, but because Michigan is a fellow bubble team, this win has a little more cachet than, say, Nevada beating San Jose State. But it certainly doesn’t make Rutgers a lock.
With a loss – I don’t think they’re going to make it. I can’t rule it out until I see what everyone else does.

Arizona State – next game today vs. USC (NET 48)

With a win – it’s a Quad 1 win for now, but similar to the Utah State comment, the act of beating USC may knock them down enough in the NET so that it’s not a Quad 1 anymore. Beat them, but don’t beat them badly, I guess. Regardless, it’s a really good win and would move Arizona State toward the head of this pack of teams right around the cut line.
With a loss – similar to Rutgers, I don’t think they’ll make it, but with their four Quad 1 wins, it can’t be ruled out.

North Carolina – next game today vs. Virginia (NET 30)

With a win – the Tar Heels move to a 60% chance to make it with a win today.
With a loss – they’re done.

Wisconsin (regular season over)

The Badgers have no games left to improve their standing. Could they possibly make it? I can’t completely remove a team with six Quad 1 wins. But I would rate their chances at 10% or less.

Oregon – next game today vs. Washington State (NET 69)

With a win – a win doesn’t mean much. Oregon has to do a lot more than beat Washington State if they’re going to make it.
With a loss – they’re done.

Michigan – next game today vs. Rutgers (NET 43)

With a win – it’s a solid Quad 1 win and will move the Wolverines up considerably in the pecking order, but their situation would still be precarious.
With a loss – they’re done.

Clemson – next game today vs. NC State (NET 37)

With a win – would be a solid Quad 1 for the Tigers, their third win over NC State, and would help cancel out the Tigers’ bad losses. But it seems unlikely that this win alone will be enough to get the Tigers in.
With a loss – they’re done.

Bubble Action 3/8

Quick update on the six bubble teams in action today.

NC State can move to a Lock on my board with a win over Virginia Tech.

North Carolina and Arizona State are fighting to stay alive. The Tar Heels are definitely done if they lose to BC. Arizona State might still have a faint pulse with a loss to Oregon State, but they would be a long shot.

Oklahoma State and Wisconsin are both in similar positions. They are both around the cut line. You can’t rule them out if they lose today, but you can’t say they’re in if they win either. A loss probably hurts more than a win helps. Both are playing conference rivals who are better than their record would indicate.

Then there’s Pitt. The Panthers play Georgia Tech this afternoon. I say they are out if they lose, but there is a lot of disagreement about Pitt among Bracketologists, and not everyone would agree. But it does seem that the community is coming around a bit to my point of view. Only 73 of the 89 brackets on bracketmatrix.com have them in. Jerry Palm of cbssports.com still has them as a 9 seed, which is a fantasy.

Bubble Update 3/5

It has been a busy weekend in bubble land.

West Virginia, Auburn, and USC moved up to Locks with their wins over Kansas State, Tennessee, and Arizona State respectively
Penn State and Oklahoma State got huge wins to move them up in the bubble pecking order
Nevada had a damaging home loss to UNLV which makes their position precarious
Mississippi State, Arizona State, North Carolina, and Pitt failed to get the wins they needed to solidify their positions
Utah State got their first Quad 1 win against Boise State

As I write this, Wisconsin and Rutgers haven’t played yet. Wisconsin’s game against Minnesota won’t help them if they win, but it will hurt them if they lose. If Rutgers can beat Northwestern, I think it will move them to a Lock.

I need to correct and clarify a couple of things from Friday’s post. One, I was unclear about the status of Florida Atlantic. I do consider them a lock. If someone else wins the Conference USA Tournament, the Owls will get in and that will be a bid steal.

Also, I neglected to include Utah State in my list of bubble teams. I’m not sure how that happened, but in any case, they are definitely in that group. In fact, with their win over Boise State, I think they would be in if the tournament started today.

With that, let’s run through the updated lists.

Locks (39):

Big 10 (7) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (5) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (2) – San Diego State, Boise State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

In for Now (2):

With their losses yesterday, I am moving Nevada and Mississippi State down into the bubble group. I am no longer convinced that they would be in if the tournament started today. The only two teams I am certain would be in today are:

Rutgers – I’m moving them to a lock if they can beat Northwestern today.

NC State – they probably benefited from not playing yesterday while a number of bubble teams around them lost. If they beat Virginia Tech on Wednesday, I’ll move them to a Lock.

Bubble Teams (5 bids available, 12 teams):

At this moment, my five bids would go to Nevada, Utah State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Penn State. Or maybe Wisconsin. With their loss to Oklahoma State yesterday, Texas Tech is off the list. Teams are listed in rank order.

Nevada – killer home loss to UNLV. They cannot afford to lose in the quarters of the Mountain West Tournament. Depending on what else happens, they may need to get to the Mountain West final.

Utah State – yes, they only have one Quad 1 win, but there is precedent for that. 8-1 against Quad 2 is outstanding. They are number 21 in the NET. No team ranked in the top 25 in the NET has ever been left out. They’re probably headed for a MWC Tournament semifinal rubber match with Boise State. A win there should clinch it for Utah State.

Mississippi State – they are hanging by a thread. Unless they make a run in the SEC Tournament, they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Oklahoma State – with their win over Texas Tech, I have them in right now, but it’s precarious. They need to beat Oklahoma on Wednesday, and then they’ll get a chance to end all doubt with a quarterfinal against Texas. If they don’t win that, they’ll be sweating it out.

Penn State – the Lions got their second straight big win on Sunday over Maryland. That puts them on the right side of the cut line, but their position is anything but safe. They need to win their first round game in the Big 10 Tournament, at a minimum.

Wisconsin – if they can avoid a bad loss against Minnesota today, their 6 Quad 1 wins will be hard to keep out. Their NET is 78, which would be the lowest to ever get an at-large bid.

Pitt – is it possible that the ACC could get only four teams in? Yup. I don’t see why Lunardi and Jerry Palm have Pitt in. What about their resume is better than, say, Wisconsin or Arizona State? Maybe they know something I don’t about the committee, but looking strictly at their resume, it’s not good enough. I say they have to beat Duke on Thursday or they’re not getting in.

North Carolina – they have to beat Boston College and Virginia to get to the semis of the ACC Tournament. Otherwise they are not getting in. Even that would not be a guarantee; it might take a run to the finals.

Michigan – Jerry Palm has them in right now. I don’t see it. Beat Indiana today, and now we’re talking. My guess is, that won’t be quite enough. They’ll need to get to the semis of the Big 10 Tournament.

Arizona State – they needed to beat USC and they didn’t. They’ll probably play Oregon in the Pac-12 quarters. Consider that an elimination game. My guess is that the winner will need to beat UCLA in the semis to get in.

Oregon – just maybe, if they get to the Pac-12 final.

Clemson – they need to pull for NC State to win on Wednesday, because beating Virginia Tech doesn’t do them any good. They have to beat the Wolfpack or they have no shot. To have a realistic shot, they have to make the ACC Tournament final.

Bubble Watch 3/3

As we head into the final weekend of the regular season, it’s time to survey the bubble. Who’s in, who’s out, and who has work to do.

I think the most compelling story is how the committee will handle the ACC. Will the ACC be graded on the curve, or will they be treated like the seventh-best conference in the country, which they are, according to the NET? Pitt, North Carolina, Clemson, and arguably NC State are bubble teams. And if you’re looking at blind resumes without regard to the conference or the name on the front of the jersey, which is what the committee claims to do, I would say that only NC State is in, and that not by much. Pitt and UNC are right around the cut line, and Clemson is out. But many of the Bracketology talking heads have NC State and Pitt comfortably in, and Clemson knocking at the door. It seems they are anticipating that the committee will be influenced by the brand and the historical reputation of the ACC. We’re getting into the realm of psychology, which is dangerous, but the committee are human, and you know that conversation will happen. “Are we really going to leave out a team that went 14-6 in the ACC?” It’s a test to see how committed they are to their principles.

Now to the detail. Let’s remind ourselves of how this works. There are 68 teams in the tournament. 23 of those bids will come from the tournament champions of one-bid leagues. That leaves 45 bids, 9 automatic bids and 36 at-large bids, for teams from the nine multi-bid leagues: the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, SEC, American, Mountain West, and West Coast. I’m going to focus on those 45 spots. I will put them into three categories: Locks, In for Now, and Bubble Teams. Locks means just that – they are going to make the tournament no matter what happens the rest of the way. In for Now are teams that would make the tournament if selections were being made today but are not totally secure due to the possibilities of bad losses, bid stealers, and idiosyncratic decisions by the committee. Bubble Teams are close to the cut line and have a non-trivial chance to earn an at-large bid. Keep in mind that the number of Bubble Teams who actually receive bids depends on the number of bid stealers. As a reminder, a bid steal happens when a team from one of the nine multi-bid leagues above who would not otherwise have made it as an at-large wins the conference tournament. This means that a spot must be made for them, and the result is that the last at-large team in the field gets bumped out. Any team not listed has no chance to earn an at-large bid in my estimation.

Locks (35):

Big 10 (7) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois

Big 12 (6) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State

SEC (6) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri

Big East (5) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (2) – UCLA, Arizona

Mountain West (2) – San Diego State, Boise State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Probably the most controversial team here as a Lock is Memphis. They have only two Quad 1 wins. However, their 8-3 Quad 2 record is very good. Since 2016, only two teams with 8+ Quad 2 wins have been left out of the field: Nevada 2017, who had zero Quad 1 wins, and Butler 2019, who had one. Their last regular season game is against Houston, so it won’t hurt them much even if they lose. I guess if they got blown out by Houston and lost to, say, SMU in the quarterfinals of the AAC tourney, they would be nervous. But they would still make it, I think.

In for Now (7):

West Virginia – West Virginia is a tournament team. I am tempted to make them a Lock. They have five Quad 1 wins. Since 2016, there have been 10 teams with 5+ Quad 1 wins who got left out of the field. All but one of them had 5+ losses to Quads 2/3/4. WVU has one. None of them was ranked higher than 38 in the RPI/NET. WVU is 24. The only reason I don’t have them as a lock is their overall record. They could finish 17-15, considering their last game is against Kansas State with the Big 12 tourney to follow. Since 2016, only one team that was two games over .500 has made it as an at-large (Maryland 2021). I think the Mountaineers would be the second, but I can’t be sure. The committee seems to have a line they don’t like to cross.

Auburn – I think the Tigers will get in, but there is precedent for a team like them getting left out. NC State 2019 was pretty similar – not many Quad 1 wins but good Quad 2 record, not many bad losses, solid NET. NC State that year was punished for playing a weak non-conference schedule, and Auburn doesn’t have that problem. Their last regular season game is at home against Tennessee. That would be an opportunity for them to eliminate all doubt. They will probably play Mississippi State, Arkansas, or Florida in the SEC Tourney. If they lose to Tennessee and then lose that game, they’ll be sweating it. One more win should do it.

USC – They would definitely get in if the tournament started today, but they can’t afford a slip-up. Texas A&M last year had a very similar resume, and they got left out. They play Arizona State at home on Saturday, and then they’ll play somebody like Washington State or Utah in the quarters of the Pac-12 Tournament. Win both of those games, and they’re a lock. Lose one, they’ll probably make it but it will be tight. Lose both and they’re probably sunk.

Nevada – They have four Quad 1 wins and a NET of 32. Nobody has ever been left out with that profile. The only reason I don’t call them a lock is, they still have the opportunity for a couple of bad losses. UNLV at home to close the regular season, then maybe San Jose State in the quarters of the Mountain West tournament. Lose both of those games and they’re in trouble.

Mississippi State – the Bulldogs have four Quad 1 wins, two of which are outstanding – at Arkansas and on a neutral court against Marquette. That win quality is probably enough to get them in, but they are only 3-2 against Quad 2, so overall they have a 7-9 record against Quads 1&2. They have a couple of toss-up type games coming up: at Vanderbilt to close the regular season, and then someone from the middle of the SEC pack in the first round of the SEC tournament. I think if they win one of those games, they’ll be OK.

Rutgers – Rutgers has been alternating bad losses (vs. Nebraska, at Minnesota) with good wins (at Wisconsin, at Penn State) lately. Life in the Big 10. They have five Quad 1 wins and a solid NET of 38, which certainly sounds like a tournament team. Their Achilles’ heel is four Quad 3 losses. It’s an unusual resume. It’s hard to find a good comp for them from the past. Their remaining schedule is similar to Mississippi State: they have a couple of toss-up games coming up, at home against Northwestern and then the first round of the Big 10 Tournament against somebody like Michigan or Michigan State. But I think their position is a bit more precarious than Mississippi State. They really need to win one of those games, and both to be completely safe.

NC State – The Wolfpack seem to be safely in according to most of the Bracketology talking heads, but I’m not sure why. They have only two Quad 1 wins. That is the ONLY thing separating their resume from North Carolina’s. If the Tar Heels beat Duke on Saturday, then they are dead even. Anyway, back to NC State. Their first round ACC Tournament game will be against Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest, or Syracuse. They need to win it. If they do, I think they’re OK. Getting to the semifinals would make them totally safe.

Bubble Teams (10):

There are three spots available for this group. That number goes down with any bid stealers. However, it could also go up if any of the In for Nows stumble badly.

Pitt – let’s start with the Panthers. They are the case study for whether the committee will give the ACC a boost. They have four Quad 1 wins, but none of those is a so-called Quad 1A win. Their Quad 2 record is only 3-4, and the have two bad losses. Their NET is mediocre. The only reason I can come up with that the talking heads have them in is, they can’t believe the committee will leave out a team that is 14-5 in the ACC. And maybe they’re right. The winning record against Quad 1 is a major point in their favor. They play at Miami this weekend. A win there would clinch it. If they lose that game, they really need to win the ACC quarterfinal, and they need that to be a Quad 1 win, which means Duke, NC State, or North Carolina. Beating Clemson doesn’t help them as much. Bottom line is, if they don’t get another Quad 1 win, I think they will be left out.

North Carolina – I think the Tar Heels are in a similar boat to Pitt. They need another Quad 1 win. It could be against Duke on Saturday, or it could be in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. I think their position is slightly weaker than Pitt’s; I’m not convinced that one Quad 1 win is enough, and it may depend on bid stealers and what the other bubble teams do. They need two more Quad 1 wins to be safe.

Penn State – the Lions got a huge win on Wednesday at Northwestern, their fourth Quad 1. That is solid, but like Pitt, the rest of their resume is underwhelming. In fact, their resume is very much like Pitt’s. They need to beat Maryland at home on Sunday and win their first round game in the Big 10 Tournament. That’s the minimum. They may need to get to the semis of the tournament.

Oklahoma State – a slightly worse version of West Virginia. Five Quad 1 wins, but an awful lot of losses, including their last five, and nothing like West Virginia’s impressive non-conference performance. Being in the Big 12, they’ll have plenty of opportunities to impress the committee. Between their last regular season game at Texas Tech and the Big 12 Tournament, they need two wins to be safe. No team with seven Quad 1 wins has ever been left out. If they were to beat Texas Tech and lose in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, that would be interesting; they would have six Quad 1 wins, which historically is close to a guarantee, but their overall record would be 17-15. With the late season slide, I don’t think it would be good enough.

Wisconsin – the Badgers are difficult to get a read on. They have six Quad 1 wins. Only three teams with six Q1s have been left out since 2016. However, for some reason the NET thinks they are terrible at number 77. The lowest ranked NET team ever to get an at-large was Rutgers last year, and they were, guess what, 77. It’s hard to know what to do with all of that. One thing is for sure: they can’t lose to Minnesota on Sunday. My sense is, if they beat Minnesota and score a Quad 1 win in the Big 10 Tournament, they’ll make it; otherwise, they probably won’t.

Arizona State – similar to Wisconsin. Poor NET, poor record against Quad 2, relying on their Quad 1 record, which includes four wins overall including a neutral court win over Creighton and a really impressive win at Arizona. Some bracketologists have them in right now. I don’t. Winning at USC on Saturday would help a lot, plus a quarterfinal win in the tournament. Otherwise they need a run to the Pac-12 final.

Michigan – now we’re getting to the deep cuts. Michigan is almost certainly not in right now. What do they have to do to win their way in? Winning at Indiana on Sunday would be a great start, and might just be enough depending on what else happens. Most likely, though, they need two more Quad 1 wins. Either Indiana and the tournament quarterfinal, or getting to the Big 10 Tournament final.

Oregon – the *really* deep cuts. Oregon, just maybe, if they get to the Pac-12 final. Even then, I doubt it, but say they beat Arizona State in the quarters and UCLA in the semis? I guess that could be enough if things break their way.

Clemson – Clemson’s four bad losses really kill them. Let’s say they beat Duke or NC State in the quarters and Virginia or Miami in the semis? Similar to Oregon, that might be enough. Anything short of that will not be unless the committee has a real soft spot for the ACC.

Texas Tech – why do I have them on here? Because they play in the Big 12. Practically every game is a Quad 1. If they beat Oklahoma State to close the regular season, then beat, say, West Virginia, Kansas, and Texas to reach the Big 12 tournament final? Yeah, they would make it. I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance it will happen, but I can’t rule it out.

Bracketology 2/19

Another week of college basketball is in the books. This week the NCAA came out with their top 16 seeds, which is kind of a sanity check for us bracketologists. I was more or less on target with one exception; I had UConn as a 3 seed over Marquette. I can certainly see why the committee would pick Marquette; they are 13-3 in the Big East, while UConn is only 9-7. However, UConn has in incredibly impressive non-conference resume; they beat Alabama, Iowa State, and Oregon on neutral courts, and they won at Florida, and the closest of those four games was 15 points.

But I do think the committee has a recency bias, and you might say that’s appropriate, although in my opinion games in November ought to count the same as games in February.

Here’s an update on ACC teams.

Virginia – headed for a 3 at this point, and more likely to move down than up.

Pitt – I have them as an 11 after the loss to Virginia Tech. That is lower than most prognosticators. Despite their ACC record, their overall resume isn’t that good. They have 6 sub-Quad I losses – the most of any serious tournament contender. They better not stumble down the stretch.

Miami – A solid 5 and more likely to go up than down. Historically, 5s get upset much more than 4s in the tournament. Favorable schedule remaining.

Clemson – I see them as not even close right now. Lunardi’s had them close to the cut line, but I don’t see how. Their NET is 80, they have no Quad I-A wins, and three Quad 4 losses. I’m not aware of any team receiving an at-large bid with three Quad 4 losses. They must win at NC State or at Virginia to even be relevant, and in my opinion they have to win out to get in.

NC State – I have the Wolfpack as a 10 seed, maybe one spot lower than the consensus. They’re not quite a lock, but they would have to fall apart to miss the tournament.

Duke – I have them as an 8. Very close to the 8/9 cut line in my model. They finish with NC State at home and at UNC, so still could move up.

North Carolina – I have the Tar Heels as the first team out, and in a way I think that makes them sound closer than they really are. As the commentators never tire of pointing out, they are 0-9 against Quad I opponents, and they WILL NOT get in without a Quad I win. They have two more chances with home games against Virginia and Duke. If they lose those, forget about it. If they can win one of those, and their two road games against Notre Dame and FSU, then it might come down to the ACC Tournament. My sense is, they won’t get in without two Quad I wins.

Everybody else – not close. Virginia Tech and Wake Forest would have to jump 10-15 teams to get in. Each needs to win out, and then probably do some damage in the ACC Tournament.

And now for the bracket:

Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
Texas, Arizona, Baylor, UCLA
Tennessee, UConn, Gonzaga, Virginia
Marquette, Indiana, Iowa State, Xavier
St. Mary’s, Kansas State, Miami, San Diego State
Creighton, Arkansas, Maryland, Northwestern
TCU, Texas A&M, Auburn, Iowa
Providence, Kentucky, Michigan State, Duke
Illinois, Boise State, Florida Atlantic, Memphis
Nevada, Rutgers, NC State, Oklahoma State
Missouri, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Pitt, USC, Utah State
College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
Kent State, Liberty, Utah Valley, Southern Miss
Yale, Iona, UC Irvine, Eastern Washington
Youngstown St., Colgate, Vermont, UNC Asheville
Samford, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Morehead State, Howard, Alcorn State, Merrimack

Last Four Byes: NC State, Oklahoma State, Missouri, West Virginia

Last Four In: Mississippi State, Pitt, USC, Utah State

First Four Out: UNC, Wisconsin, North Texas, Oregon

Next Four Out: Coll. of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), New Mexico, Penn State, Texas Tech

Bracketology 2/12

It’s been a busy weekend in college basketball. Here are the Bracketology headlines:

Texas moves up to the top line. Their 10-5 Quadrant 1 record, including 6 wins against Quadrant 1A, is too good to ignore. Their blowout of West Virginia drops the Mountaineers to a 9.
Tennessee drops down to a 3 after another buzzer-beater loss, this time at the hands of Missouri. The Tigers jump up to a 7.
Creighton is on fire and they jump to a 5.
Oklahoma State gets a huge win at Iowa State and jumps to a 7.
Providence is now firmly in bubble territory after their fourth loss in their last five games.
Mississippi State gets a huge win at Arkansas and jumps into the field.
Kentucky remains in the bracket after losing at Georgia, but just barely.
New Mexico drops out of the field with a bad loss at Air Force.

In the ACC,

NC State moved up a line after blowing out Boston College
UNC solidified their position a bit by blowing out Clemson
Miami and Pitt avoided bad losses with wins over Louisville and FSU
Virginia Tech and Wake Forest kept their faint hopes alive with wins over Notre Dame and Georgia Tech

A lot of bracketologists still have Clemson in. I don’t see it. They have two Quad 4 losses. At-large teams with two Quad 4 losses are extremely rare. Since 2016, there have been four: Providence 2017, Providence 2018, Baylor 2019, and Arizona State 2019. The first three of those teams had much stronger Quad 1 wins than the Tigers do. Arizona State 2019, well that was one of the oddest and most controversial selections in recent memory. Clemson is down to 77th in the NET. No team ranked lower than that has been selected as an at-large team since at least 2016, although Rutgers 2022 was exactly 77th. But they had six Quad 1 wins.

We can’t talk about yesterday without talking about Duke-Virginia. It’s odd to be in the position of defending Duke for being on the wrong end of a call, but that was a miscarriage of justice. Considering the circumstances – the importance of the situation, the fact that the replays clearly showed what happened and the officials had all the time they needed to review, and the fact that the correct call was made on the floor but was reversed – I think that’s the worst officiating decision I’ve ever seen.

From the explanations, I gather that the officials reasoned that the foul occurred not on the arm but with the body, and the body contact happened after the buzzer, therefore no foul. There are two things wrong with that. 1) That’s not the rule. 2) Yes, the foul absolutely did take place on the arm.

Let’s not overthink this. It doesn’t require knowledge of arcane rules. A guy went up for a shot and was hacked in the act before the clock ran out. Anyone with eyes could see it. Get the call right, and Duke very likely has a massive road win. With that win, Duke is probably a 7 seed, maybe a 6. As it is, I have them as a 9. That’s lower than Lunardi and most others, but if you forget about the name on the jersey and look at the blind resume, that’s where they belong.

Here’s the current bracket, with automatic bids in bold:

Alabama, Purdue, Kansas, Texas
Houston, Baylor, Arizona, UCLA
Virginia, Tennessee, UConn, Xavier
Gonzaga, Kansas State, Marquette, Indiana
Iowa State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State, Creighton
Miami, Illinois, TCU, Arkansas
Florida Atlantic, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Auburn
Maryland, Rutgers, Nevada, Michigan State
West Virginia, NC State, Iowa, Duke
Memphis, Northwestern, Boise State, Providence
Mississippi State, UNC, Pitt, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Oregon
College of Charleston, Oral Roberts, Drake, Liberty
Southern Miss, VCU, Sam Houston, Kent St.
Yale, Iona, Furman, UC Santa Barbara
Youngstown St., Eastern Washington, Colgate, Vermont
UNC Asheville, Northwestern St., Alcorn St., Howard, Morehead St., Fairleigh Dickinson

Last Four Byes: Boise State, Providence, Mississippi State, UNC

Last Four In (Play-in games): Pitt, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Oregon

First Four Out: USC, New Mexico, Utah State, Wisconsin

Next Four Out: College of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), North Texas, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall

And Even the Next Four Out After That: Arizona State, Florida, Wake Forest, Clemson

Bracketology 2023 – 2/9 Bracket

The last Bracketology post I made was on the morning of March 12, 2020. That was the day the college basketball world stopped and everything got cancelled.

Thankfully, things have returned to something like normal, and I’m going to give this Bracketology thing another try here in 2023. I’ll do regular bracket updates, the occasional bubble watch, and some targeted commentary for ACC teams.

Here’s my bracket as it stands right now. Automatic bids in bold:

Purdue, Alabama, Kansas, Houston
Arizona, Texas, Baylor, Tennessee
UCLA, Virginia, Xavier, UConn
Kansas St., Gonzaga, Iowa St., Marquette
Miami, Indiana, San Diego St., St. Mary’s
Arkansas, TCU, Creighton, Auburn
West Virginia, Rutgers, Illinois, Duke
Florida Atlantic, Michigan St., Nevada, Iowa
Maryland, Providence, Northwestern, Boise St.
Memphis, NC State, Missouri, New Mexico
Oklahoma St., Pitt, Kentucky, USC, UNC, Oregon
College of Charleston, Oral Roberts, Liberty, Southern Miss
VCU, Drake, Sam Houston, Kent St.
Yale, Iona, Furman, UC Santa Barbara
Colgate, E. Washington, Youngstown St., Vermont
UNC Asheville, Northwestern St., Morgan St., Fairleigh Dickinson, Maryland Eastern Shore, Southern

Last Four Byes: Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma St., Pitt

Last Four In (Play-in games): Kentucky, USC, UNC, Oregon

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Utah St., Mississippi St.

Next Four Out: College of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), Florida, Clemson, Wake Forest

Bracketology 3/12

There were a few games involving bubble teams yesterday, in games they needed to win. Not because it helps their resume, but more because losing hurts it. NC State, Indiana, and Arkansas won; Stanford and Xavier did not. Stanford is now my last team in the field.

Seed	Team 1	Team 2	Team 3	Team 4	Team 5	Team 6
1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	Dayton
2	Villanova	Florida State	San Diego St.	Maryland
3	Creighton	Kentucky	Michigan St.	Duke
4	Seton Hall	Oregon	Auburn	Louisville
5	West Virginia	Butler	Wisconsin	Ohio St.
6	LSU	BYU	Penn State	Virginia
7	Iowa	Houston	Arizona	Marquette
8	Colorado	Illinois	Michigan	Rutgers
9	St. Mary’s	Providence	Florida	Oklahoma
10	Arizona St.	USC	Utah State	Wichita St.
11	Xavier	Texas Tech	Indiana	Richmond	UCLA	Stanford
12	North Texas	E. Tenn. St.	Yale	Vermont
13	Akron	New Mexico St.	Stephen F. Austin	E. Washington
14	Belmont	Hofstra	Liberty	Bradley
15	N. Kentucky	UC Irvine	N. Dakota St.	Little Rock
16	Boston U.	Winthrop	Siena	Robert Morris	Prairie View A&M	NC Central

Checking In: Boston U., Northern Kentucky, Robert Morris

Dropping Out: Colgate, Wright State, St. Francis (PA)

Last 4 Byes: Arizona State, Wichita St., Indiana, Texas Tech

Last 4 In: Xavier, UCLA, Richmond, Stanford

First 4 Out: Texas, NC State, Cincinnati, Mississippi State

Next 4 Out: Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Memphis, St. Louis

NC State’s 2020 Tournament Chances

I thought about copying and pasting this article from last year and see if anyone would notice… it does seems to be a rite of spring for Kevin Keatts’ Wolfpack – the Bubble Watch. And this year is no different. The Wolfpack’s profile is quite different from last year, when they played a weak non-conference schedule and lacked marquee wins. This year, they beat Wisconsin and Duke at home and Virginia on the road, so they have enough good wins, but sweeps at the hands of Carolina and Georgia Tech, along with a loss at Boston College, have seemingly cancelled out those good wins. And so the Wolfpack find themselves right around the cut line. Again.

There are lots of ways to look at this, but the one I like is this one. There are 68 teams in the field. 12 teams have already punched their tickets:

Atlantic Sun: Liberty
Big South: Winthrop
Colonial Athletic: Hofstra
Horizon League: Northern Kentucky
Ivy League: Yale
Missouri Valley: Bradley
Mountain West: Utah State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Southern: East Tennessee State
Summit League: North Dakota State
West Coast: Gonzaga

That leaves 56 bids. Of the 56, 12 more will come from the champions of one-bid leagues:

America East
Big Sky
Big West
Conference USA
MAAC
MAC
MEAC
Patriot
Southland
Southwestern Athletic
Sun Belt
WAC

So that leaves 44 bids, 36 at-large bids and 8 bids for the champions of the multi-bid leagues whose tournaments are not yet decided:

ACC
American Athletic
Atlantic 10
Big 10
Big 12
Big East
PAC 12
SEC

I am making the call that there are 36 locks for those 44 bids:

Arizona
Auburn
Baylor
Butler
BYU
Colorado
Creighton
Dayton
Duke
Florida
Florida State
Houston
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
LSU
Marquette
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Penn State
Providence
Rutgers
St. Mary’s
San Diego State
Seton Hall
USC
Villanova
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin

I feel a little bit nervous calling Rutgers and Oklahoma locks, but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

So we’re down to 8 bids left. And I would say that there are 11 teams in serious contention for those 8 bids:

Arizona State
Cincinnati
Indiana
NC State
Richmond
Stanford
Texas
Texas Tech
UCLA
Wichita State
Xavier

Now, always keep in mind the possibility of bid stealers. The way to think about bid stealers is this: if any team that is a) from one of the 8 multi-bid leagues above and b) NOT on the “Locks” list above wins a conference tournament – they grab one of the 8 up-for-grabs bids, leaving one less for everyone else.

If that doesn’t happen, then 8 of the 11 teams above will get in. There are still a couple of other teams that can’t be ruled out for an at-large if they make a deep run in the conference tourney – Mississippi State, possibly Purdue. But most likely, the 8 bids will come from those 11 teams.

Of those 11 teams, the conventional wisdom, which I agree with, is that 4 of the 11 – Arizona State, Indiana, Texas Tech, and Xavier will probably get in, barring an early conference tournament loss. Now I want to say that this is not a guarantee. None of the 11 teams I listed should be shocked to not hear their name called on Selection Sunday. That’s why I didn’t call them Locks. TCU was in a similar position last year, and they were left out. But I think that unless those teams get upset by a bad team in their tournaments, they will probably make it.

That leaves 4 bids to be split among Cincinnati, NC State, Richmond, Stanford, Texas, UCLA, and Wichita State.

Cincinnati and Wichita State would meet in the semifinals of the AAC Tournament on Saturday if both win on Friday. It’s tempting to call that an “elimination game”. I’m not certain of that, but I think Cincinnati especially would have a real uphill climb if they don’t win that game.

Richmond plays the winner of Davidson-LaSalle on Thursday, then probably Rhode Island in the semis if they win. I think if the Spiders can beat Rhode Island, they’ll probably make it. If not, they’re in trouble.

UCLA and Stanford may also be headed for an elimination game in the quarters of the Pac-12 tomorrow. Stanford first has to beat Cal tonight. UCLA has a very strange resume. They’re really low in the NET (#76) and they have some terrible losses – but they have 6 Quadrant 1 wins and, in my opinion, are in the field right now. I think there is a decent chance that both of these teams make it, but the loser of tomorrow’s game is going to be sweating.

Texas is also a weird team. They’re also low in the NET (#69), but for a different reason – they’ve been blown out a lot. They lost to West Virginia by 38, Providence by 22, Georgetown by 16, Iowa State by 29, and Oklahoma State by 22. BUT, they have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, 4 of which are on the road, and a home win against West Virginia. So good luck figuring them out. And, as luck would have it, they are matched up with… Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament. I’m loving these bubble team elimination games. I am saying that if Texas loses, they are out. Texas Tech I think could still have a chance with a loss.

So there you have it. If you’re a Wolfpack fan, you’re rooting for all of those other 10 teams to lose, and lose early. If they play each other, you’re rooting for the most vulnerable teams – probably Cincinnati and Texas – to lose.

And then of course you’re hoping for a win over Duke on Thursday, which would move the Wolfpack into Lock territory. If they don’t beat Duke, they are going to need a lot of help and a lot of luck, and I wouldn’t put their chances at more than 25%.