Tag: NCAA

Automatic Bids (14 of 32 decided):

• Morehead State, Ohio Valley
• Longwood, Big South
• Drake, Missouri Valley
• Stetson, Atlantic Sun
• James Madison, Sun Belt
• Samford, Southern Conference
• Charleston, CAA
• Oakland, Horizon
• Wagner, Northeast
• St. Mary’s, West Coast
• South Dakota State, Summit
• McNeese State, Southland
• Colgate, Patriot
• Montana State, Big Sky

Bubble Team Action Yesterday:

Won and Removed All Doubt:

• Colorado State, W 85-78 vs. Nevada

Lost and Probably Eliminated:

• Memphis, L 71-65 vs. Wichita St.
• Utah, L 72-58 vs. Colorado
• Iowa, L 90-78 vs. Ohio St.
• Kansas State, L 76-57 vs. Iowa St.
• Cincinnati, L 68-56 vs. Baylor
• Wake Forest, L 81-69 vs. Pitt
• Villanova, L 71-65 vs. Marquette

I can’t say with absolute certainty that Wake and Villanova are out, but I’d say < 10% chance.

Another consequential thing that happened yesterday is that Dayton lost. That means that someone else is going to get the Atlantic 10 automatic bid, Dayton will get an at-large bid, and there is therefore one less at-large bid available for everyone else. In my bracket, Indiana State is the victim who drops out.

I would say at this point, the bubble consists of the following teams, which I present in rank order:

1. Colorado
2. St. John’s
3. Seton Hall
4. Mississippi State
5. Texas A&M
6. Virginia
7. Pitt
8. CUT LINE IS HERE
9. Indiana State
10. New Mexico
11. Providence
12. Ohio State

All of these teams are still playing except for Seton Hall and Indiana State.

Today’s Bubble Games

Win and In:

• Colorado vs. Washington State. I think Colorado will make it anyway, but this win would remove all doubt.
• Texas A&M vs. Kentucky. I have them a few spots higher than Lunardi.
• Mississippi State vs. Tennessee
• St. John’s vs. UConn

Win Today, Then Win Again:

• Ohio State vs. Illinois. Probably need to get to the tournament final, but if they were to win today and Providence, Pitt, and New Mexico all lose, then it would get interesting.

Win and Maybe In, Lose and Probably Out:

• Providence vs. Marquette. It would be the Friars’ 7th Quad 1 win. No team with seven Quad 1 wins has ever been left out of the field as far as I can tell.
• Pitt vs. North Carolina. Pitt really looks like a tournament team. I think Lunardi is underselling them. If they lose today, I wouldn’t rule them out, but I’d say their chances are no better than 25%.
• New Mexico vs. Colorado State

And the Rest:

• Virginia vs. NC State. Most of the teams Virginia is competing with have a Quad 1-A type game today. The Cavaliers do not. That makes it hard to pin down their prospects. Even if they win, they could get leapfrogged by Pitt, New Mexico, or Providence if any of them win. On the other hand, even if they lose, they could maintain their position if all the teams below them lose.
• Indiana State. The poor Sycamores can only sit and watch. What they really need is for Providence, Pitt, New Mexico, and Ohio State to all lose today. Which could totally happen.
• Seton Hall. Not a good showing against St. John’s yesterday. I think the Pirates have done enough, but I will have some doubt until I see their name on the board on Sunday.

Automatic Bids (11 of 32 decided):

• Morehead State, Ohio Valley
• Longwood, Big South
• Drake, Missouri Valley
• Stetson, Atlantic Sun
• James Madison, Sun Belt
• Samford, Southern Conference
• Charleston, CAA
• Oakland, Horizon
• Wagner, Northeast
• St. Mary’s, West Coast
• South Dakota State, Summit

Today’s Games of Consequence

Tournament Finals:

• Southland – McNeese St. vs. Nicholls
• Patriot – Colgate vs. Lehigh
• Big Sky – Montana vs. Montana St.

Win and In:

• TCU vs. Oklahoma. Both of these teams are probably in anyway, but today’s loser will be nervous on Selection Sunday. Especially if it’s TCU.
• Colorado State vs. San Jose State

Definitely Out Without This Win, Not Necessarily In With It:

• Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame. Probably have to beat Pitt on Thursday as well.
• Providence vs. Georgetown
• New Mexico vs. Air Force
• Villanova vs. DePaul

Win Today, Then Win Again:

• Virginia Tech vs. Florida State. The Hokies have to beat North Carolina on Thursday to get themselves into the mix.
• UCF vs. BYU. I doubt that it’s possible for UCF to get an at-large bid, but the Big 12 Tourney does present an opportunity to rack up several Quad 1 wins.
• Kansas State vs. Texas. See above, the Big 12 tourney is a Quad 1 gold mine.
• Cincinnati vs. Kansas. Ditto.
• Utah vs. Arizona State. I doubt there is a path for the Utes to get an at-large bid, but I can’t completely rule it out.
• Butler vs. Xavier. Same situation, I doubt there is a path for Butler, but if they win today, they get a shot at UConn tomorrow.

Tickets Punched

• Morehead State, Ohio Valley champions
• Longwood, Big South champions
• Drake, Missouri Valley champions
• Stetson, Atlantic Sun champions

Top Seeds

Obviously you have Purdue, UConn, and Houston. For the fourth #1, I would rank them Tennessee, Arizona, North Carolina right now, but it’s very close. If one of those three teams wins its conference tournament and the other two do not, that team will get it. If Iowa State were to win the Big 12 tournament and none of the other three teams won their tournament, that would be an interesting decision.

Bubble Watch

I feel reasonably confident that the first three teams I have listed as “Last Four Byes” – Seton Hall, Colorado, Mississippi State – are going to get in.

I feel somewhat confident that the teams I have listed as “Next Four Out” – Ohio State, Memphis, Utah, and Iowa – are not going to get in.

That leaves nine teams – Texas A&M, my “Last Four In” and “First Four Out” – fighting for at most four spots, assuming no bid stealers.

I have Texas A&M at the top of that list due to their win quality. 11 wins against Quad 1 and 2 is just too much to leave out, considering the competition. But 2-4 against Quad 3 gives me pause.

I’m not sure that Indiana State is receiving serious consideration as an at-large candidate, and I understand why, but I think there is precedent for a team like them getting in, for example Drake 2021.

Villanova‘s record is 17-14. They must win a game in the Big East Tournament, or they have no shot. I don’t see the committee putting them in at 17-15.

ACC Watch

Virginia, Pitt, and Wake Forest are extremely close. In the NET, it goes Wake, Pitt, Virginia. In the results-based metrics, it goes Virginia, Pitt, Wake. In the predictive metrics, it goes Wake, Pitt, Virginia. Each team has 2 Quad 1 wins. Virginia’s Quad 2/3 record is similar to Pitt’s, perhaps a shade better, while Wake is only 6-6 against Quad 2.

Pitt and Wake are probably going to play each other in the ACC Tournament. It’s tempting to call that an elimination game, and it may well be. Virginia is probably going to play Clemson. That game could secure the Cavaliers’ spot in the field. If they lose… I don’t know. It will depend on what the other teams do.

Elevator Report

Team	Prior Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Baylor	2	3	L 78-68 at Texas Tech (NET 30, Quad 1-A)
Creighton	3	2	W 69-67 at Villanova (NET 33, Quad 1-A)
Duke	3	4	L 84-79 vs. North Carolina (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Kentucky	4	3	W 85-81 at Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Florida	5	7	L 79-78 at Vanderbilt (NET 203, Quad 3)
Wisconsin	5	6	L 78-70 at Purdue (NET 2, Quad 1-A)
Dayton	6	5	W 91-86 vs. VCU (NET 76, Quad 3)
San Diego State	6	7	L 79-77 vs. Boise State (NET 23, Quad 1-B)
Texas Tech	7	5	W 78-68 vs. Baylor (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Gonzaga	7	6	Idle
Washington State	7	8	Idle
St. Mary’s	7	8	Idle
Nebraska	8	7	W 85-70 at Michigan (NET 132, Quad 2)
Texas	8	7	W 94-80 vs. Oklahoma (NET 43, Quad 2)
Michigan State	8	9	L 65-64 at Indiana (NET 93, Quad 2)
TCU	9	10	L 79-77 vs UCF (NET 61, Quad 2)
Florida Atlantic	9	8	W 92-84 vs. Memphis (NET 69, Quad 2)
Mississippi State	9	11	L 93-89 vs. South Carolina (NET 49, Quad 2)
Northwestern	10	9	W 90-66 vs. Minnesota (NET 86, Quad 3)
Boise State	10	9	W 79-77 at San Diego State (NET 20, Quad 1-A)
Colorado	11	10	W 73-57 at Oregon State (NET 161, Quad 3)
Villanova	11	Out	L 69-67 vs. Creighton (NET 11, Quad 1-A)
New Mexico	11	Out	L 87-85 at Utah State (NET 32, Quad 1-A)
Texas A&M	Out	11	W 86-60 at Ole Miss (NET 90, Quad 2)
Pitt	Out	12	W 81-73 vs. NC State (NET 81, Quad 3)
High Point	14	Out	Lost in Big South tourney
Morehead State	15	14	Won OVC tourney
Eastern Washington	15	Out	Lost in Big Sky tourney
Quinnipiac	16	15	In MAAC tourney
Weber State	Out	15	In Big Sky tourney
Longwood	Out	16	Won Big South tourney

The Bracket (automatic bids in bold, tickets punched in CAPS)

1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
2. Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Creighton
3. Marquette, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
4. Duke, Auburn, Illinois, Alabama
5. BYU, Texas Tech, Clemson, Dayton
6. Nevada, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
7. Texas, Florida, San Diego State, Nebraska
8. Utah State, Washington State, St. Mary’s, Florida Atlantic
9. Boise State, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Northwestern
10. Colorado State, TCU, Colorado, Seton Hall
11. Mississippi State, Texas A&M, St. John’s, Virginia, DRAKE, Princeton
12. Indiana State, Pitt, Grand Canyon, James Madison
13. McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
14. College of Charleston, Louisiana Tech, MOREHEAD STATE, Akron
15. Oakland, Colgate, Weber State, Quinnipiac
16. South Dakota St., LONGWOOD, STETSON, Norfolk State, Merrimack, Southern

Last Four Byes: Colorado, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Last Four In: St. John’s, Virginia, Indiana State, Pitt

First Four Out: Wake Forest, New Mexico, Providence, Villanova

Next Four Out: Ohio State, Memphis, Utah, Iowa

Headlines

• Nevada and Florida strengthen their positions with Quad 1-A wins
• Colorado moves into the field with a Quad 1 win at Oregon
• Wake Forest loses a game they couldn’t afford to lose

Top Seeds

Tennessee has it for now, but Arizona is close, and don’t count out North Carolina and even Iowa State. The conference tournaments will tell the tale.

Bubble Watch

Most of the teams listed as 9 or 10 seeds below are near-locks at this point. That includes Oklahoma, TCU, Florida Atlantic, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Boise State, and Colorado State. I suppose if Colorado State lost to Air Force on Saturday and then lost in the first round of the conference tournament, they might be in trouble. So we will stick with the term “near-locks” to refer to this group. They are in unless something really comes apart in these last couple of games.

After that, we get into the real bubble teams. These are the teams that if the Selection Show were today, I would not be shocked if they did not get in. Here is how I currently rank them:

1. Seton Hall – huge win over Villanova. Their metrics are bad, but I think the win quality is too much to ignore.
2. Virginia – they helped themselves this week by not playing while others around them lost.
3. Colorado – their metrics are great, but the committee needed another Quad 1 win to justify putting them in. The Buffaloes delivered at Oregon. Careful with their last game at Oregon State who just beat Utah.
4. St. John’s – if they beat Georgetown on Saturday, they will have won their last five.
5. Villanova – monster game against Creighton tomorrow. A win would make them a lock. A loss will drop them to 17-14 overall. Another loss in the Big East tourney would be 15, and that may be just too many losses. Since 2016, only two teams with 15 losses have received at-large bids: Alabama 2018 and Florida 2019. Both of those teams were 19-15.
6. New Mexico – huge game at Utah State on Saturday. A chance to win their way in. A loss doesn’t mean they’re out, but the odds get longer.
7. Drake – on to the Missouri Valley tournament. If they meet Indiana State in the final, will the loser get in? That is the question. They may benefit from the teams above them losing (Villanova, New Mexico).
8. CUT LINE IS HERE
9. Providence – playing UConn at home tomorrow. In if they win, probably not if they lose.
10. Pitt – must win game vs. NC State. NC State at home isn’t that great of a win, but the thing is, Villanova, New Mexico, and Providence all have extremely difficult games. If those three lose and the Panthers win, does that move them into the field? I think maybe it will.
11. Texas A&M – they just won’t die. Six Quad 1 wins is a lot. Then again, four Quad 3 losses is a lot too. If they win at Ole Miss on Saturday, they have a shot.
12. Utah – withering like cut grass. Tomorrow night’s game at Oregon could be the final nail – or it could be their path to get back in the mix.
13. Wake Forest – the Georgia Tech loss just about finished them off.
14. Iowa – no chance to make it unless they beat Illinois on Sunday.

ACC Watch

• Wake Forest is dead in my opinion unless they win the ACC Tournament. I don’t think beating Clemson will be enough. I guess a win over Clemson and then a win over Carolina or Duke in the tournament might do it.
• Virginia I think is going to squeak in so long as they don’t stumble against Georgia Tech on Saturday. Lunardi has them as the last team in. I think they are a little better than that.
• Pitt has a shot. At a minimum, they have to beat NC State on Saturday, and then reach the semis of the ACC Tournament. I’m not saying they’re in if they do that. Probably need to reach the finals of the tournament, and then you may as well just win the darn thing.

Elevator Report

Team	Prior Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Marquette	2	3	L 74-67 vs. UConn (NET 3, Quad 1-A)
Baylor	3	2	W 93-85 vs. Texas (NET 26, Quad 1-B)
BYU	4	5	L 68-63 at Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A)
Kentucky	5	4	W 93-77 vs. Vanderbilt (NET 214, Quad 4)
San Diego State	5	6	L 62-58 at UNLV (NET 75, Quad 1-B)
Florida	6	5	W 105-87 vs. Alabama (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Washington State	6	7	L 74-68 vs. Washington (NET 66, Quad 2)
Texas	7	8	L 93-85 at Baylor (NET 13, Quad 1-A)
Boise State	8	10	L 76-66 vs. Nevada (NET 34, Quad 2)
Nevada	8	6	W 76-66 at Boise State (NET 28, Quad 1-A)
Northwestern	9	10	L 53-49 at Michigan State (NET 23, Quad 1-A)
Michigan State	9	8	W 53-49 vs. Northwestern (NET 52, Quad 2)
TCU	10	9	W 93-81 at West Virginia (NET 147, Quad 3)
FAU	10	9	W 80-76 at North Texas (NET 86, Quad 2)
Villanova	10	11	L 66-56 at Seton Hall (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Seton Hall	11	10	W 66-56 vs. Villanova (NET 31, Quad 2)
Utah	11	Out	L 92-85 at Oregon State (NET 159, Quad 3)
Colorado	Out	11	W 79-75 at Oregon (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
Lipscomb	16	Out	Lost in Atlantic Sun tourney
Stetson	Out	16	Advanced to finals of Atlantic Sun tourney

1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
2. Arizona, Iowa State, North Carolina, Baylor
3. Kansas, Marquette, Creighton, Duke
4. Auburn, Alabama, Kentucky, Illinois
5. BYU, Clemson, Florida, Wisconsin
6. Dayton, Nevada, San Diego State, South Carolina
7. Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Washington State, St. Mary’s
8. Nebraska, Utah State, Michigan State, Texas
9. Oklahoma, TCU, Florida Atlantic, Mississippi State
10. Northwestern, Boise State, Colorado State, Seton Hall
11. Virginia, Colorado, St. John’s, Villanova, New Mexico, Drake
12. Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
13. McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
14. College of Charleston, Louisiana Tech, Akron, High Point
15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
16. Quinnipiac, South Dakota St., Stetson, Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Colorado State, Seton Hall, Virginia, Colorado

Last Four In: St. John’s, Villanova, New Mexico, Drake

First Four Out: Providence, Pitt, Texas A&M, Utah

Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Iowa, Richmond, Ohio State

Headlines

• Tennessee grabs a #1 seed with a win at Alabama
• Gonzaga moves into lock status with a win at St. Mary’s
• Providence drops out of the field after losing at home to Villanova
• Drake moves into the field – for now

Top Seeds

Tennessee leapfrogs Arizona, for now, with their win at Alabama. The last #1 seed is still between Tennessee, Arizona, and North Carolina and will come down to the conference tournaments.

Bubble Watch

Let me start with this. Gonzaga is in. They are a lock and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

Colorado State is moving towards lock territory. I think they would get in even if they lose their last game – but I wouldn’t advise it.

After Colorado State, I rank them:

1. Villanova – big win at Providence
2. St. John’s – idle
3. Virginia – looked terrible against Duke, hanging by a thread
4. Utah – blowout win over Cal
5. New Mexico – lost at Boise, not a bad loss per se, but any loss at this point is damaging
6. Drake – good win vs. Bradley
7. Seton Hall – blown out at UConn
8. CUT LINE IS HERE
9. Providence – damaging home loss to Villanova
10. Colorado – beat Stanford, who isn’t any good
11. Wake Forest – yet another road loss at VT
12. Pitt – blowout road win over BC
13. Iowa – making a late push after a quality win at Northwestern

ACC Watch

• Wake Forest is in big trouble. Their loss to Virginia Tech brings their record away from home to 3-11 on the season, and one of the three wins was against Towson. Beating Georgia Tech and Clemson is a must, and I’m not sure even that will be enough.
• Virginia looked terrible, again, against Duke. I still think they will get in if they beat Georgia Tech in their last game, but a quality win in the tournament would help.
• Pitt is alive, but I still think they need to win out AND get a flashy win in the tournament.
• Nobody else has a shot.

Elevator Report

Team	Prior Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Arizona	1	2	W 103-83 vs. Oregon (NET 65, Quad 2)
Tennessee	2	1	W 81-74 at Alabama (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Kansas	2	3	L 82-74 at Baylor (NET 13, Quad 1-A)
Iowa St.	3	2	W 60-52 at UCF (NET 66, Quad 1-B)
Alabama	3	4	L 81-74 vs. Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Creighton	4	3	W 89-75 vs. Marquette (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Kentucky	4	5	W 111-102 vs. Arkansas (NET 120, Quad 3)
BYU	5	4	W 87-75 vs. TCU (NET 38, Quad 2)
St. Mary’s	6	7	L 70-57 vs. Gonzaga (NET 17, Quad 1-B)
South Carolina	7	6	W 82-76 vs. Florida (NET 33, Quad 2)
Northwestern	7	9	L 87-80 vs. Iowa (NET 57, Quad 2)
Nevada	7	8	W 74-66 vs. Fresno State (NET 213, Quad 4)
Nebraska	7	8	W 67-56 vs. Rutgers (NET 91, Quad 3)
Mississippi St.	8	9	L 78-63 at Auburn (NET 6, Quad 1-A)
Texas	8	7	W 81-65 vs. Oklahoma State (NET 115, Quad 3)
Texas Tech	8	7	W 81-70 at West Virginia (NET 144, Quad 3)
Boise State	9	8	W 89-79 vs. New Mexico (NET 28, Quad 1-B)
TCU	9	10	L 87-75 at BYU (NET 12, Quad 1-A)
Gonzaga	10	7	W 70-57 at St. Mary’s (NET 16, Quad 1-A)
Virginia	10	11	L 73-48 at Duke (NET 9, Quad 1-A)
Villanova	11	10	W 71-60 at Providence (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Providence	11	Out	L 71-60 vs. Villanova (NET 26, Quad 1-B)
Drake	Out	11	W 74-66 vs. Bradley (NET 60, Quad 2)

1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
2. Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette
3. Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke
4. Alabama, Illinois, Auburn, BYU
5. Kentucky, Clemson, San Diego State, Wisconsin
6. Dayton, South Carolina, Washington State, Florida
7. Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Texas, St. Mary’s
8. Nevada, Boise State, Nebraska, Utah State
9. Northwestern, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
10. TCU, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State, Villanova
11. St. John’s, Virginia, Utah, New Mexico, Drake, Seton Hall
12. Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
13. McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
14. Louisiana Tech, College of Charleston, Akron, High Point
15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
16. Lipscomb, Quinnipiac, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Colorado State, Villanova, St. John’s, Virginia

Last Four In: Utah, New Mexico, Drake, Seton Hall

First Four Out: Providence, Colorado, Wake Forest, Pitt

Next Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech

And Then The Next Four After That: Ohio State, Richmond, Ole Miss, Syracuse

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Memphis, Kansas State, Oregon, Appalachian State

Gainers

• Baylor, Kentucky, BYU, Northwestern, Nevada, Texas, and St. John’s with Quad 1-A wins

Losers

• Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Wake Forest with Quad 2 losses

Top Seeds

Purdue, UConn, and Houston are easy. The battle for the fourth #1 seed is between Arizona, Tennessee, and North Carolina, and it probably won’t be decided until the conference tournaments.

Bubble Watch

Here is how I see it right now. 12 teams competing for 9 bids. I would group them as follows:

90% Confident: Gonzaga, Virginia, Colorado State

I am 90+% confident these teams are in right now. They could still lose their way out, though. Gonzaga is probably going to get two more chances to play St. Mary’s. Winning either of those makes them a lock.

60% Confident: New Mexico, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova

I have no idea how to order these five, but the main thing I want to say is, I think they are all ahead of the next group. If the tournament started today, I believe all five of these teams would be in. But it also wouldn’t be the shock of my life if one of them were left out in favor of someone from the next group. The teams in this group still have opportunities to either move up to lock status or to move down into the next group.

Problems: Utah, Drake, Wake Forest, Colorado

If there are no bid-stealers, there is room for one team from this group. Utah has some good wins, but they are 2-6 in their last eight games. Drake is, well, Drake. I don’t understand why Lunardi and others are not including them in the at-large conversation; they have three Quad 1 wins, including a good neutral court win against Nevada. But their overall schedule strength is weak and it’s hard to see them making it if they can’t win the MVC Tournament. Wake Forest and Colorado are similar, each has great metrics but only one Quad 1 win. Wake is 1-4 against Quad 1, 5-6 against Quad 2, and 3-10 away from home. That’s a tournament team? Colorado’s best win is… at Washington? Not good enough.

ACC Watch

• Wake Forest is in trouble again with their loss to Notre Dame. They MUST win at least one of their remaining Quad 1 games at Virginia Tech and home against Clemson. They have been terrible away from home this year, so the VT game is really big for them.
• Virginia has at BC, at Duke, and Georgia Tech at home. I think as long as they win two of those three, they will be OK.
• Pitt has a faint pulse for an at-large bid. Maybe, just maybe, if they win out AND get a flashy win in the tournament.
• Nobody else has a shot.

Elevator Report

Team	2/26 Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Auburn	3	4	L 92-84 at Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Baylor	4	3	W 62-54 at TCU (NET 38, Quad 1-A)
Wisconsin	4	5	L 74-70 at Indiana (NET 105, Quad 2)
Kentucky	5	4	W 91-89 at Mississippi State (NET 31, Quad 1-A)
Dayton	5	6	W 80-66 vs. Davidson (NET 106, Quad 3)
BYU	6	5	W 76-68 at Kansas (NET 17, Quad 1-A)
Texas Tech	6	8	L 81-69 vs. Texas (NET 34, Quad 2)
St. Mary’s	7	6	W 83-57 at Pepperdine (NET 244, Quad 4)
Mississippi State	7	8	L 91-89 vs. Kentucky (NET 19, Quad 1-A)
TCU	7	9	L 62-54 vs. Baylor (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Nebraska	8	7	L 78-69 at Ohio State (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Northwestern	8	7	W 68-61 at Maryland (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
Oklahoma	8	9	L 58-45 at Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A)
Nevada	9	7	W 77-74 at Colorado State (NET 29, Quad 1-A)
Colorado State	9	10	L 77-74 vs. Nevada (NET 37, Quad 1-B)
Texas	10	8	W 81-69 at Texas Tech (NET 42, Quad 1-B)
Seton Hall	10	11	L 85-64 at Creighton (NET 12, Quad 1-A)
Virginia	11	10	W 72-68 at Boston College (NET 92, Quad 2)
Wake Forest	11	Out	L 70-65 at Notre Dame (NET 135, Quad 2)
Drake	12	Out	W 107-105 at UIC (NET 179, Quad 3)
St. John’s	Out	11	W 82-59 at Butler (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
Villanova	Out	11	W 75-47 vs. Georgetown (NET 207, Quad 4)
UC Irvine	13	14	W 89-64 at Cal State Northridge (NET 221, Quad 3)
Louisiana Tech	14	13	W 90-84 at Western Kentucky (NET 145, Quad 3)
UNC Wilmington	14	Out	L 69-58 vs. Hofstra (NET 110, Quad 3)
College of Charleston	Out	14	W 96-73 vs. Campbell (NET 291, Quad 4)
Quinnipiac	16	Out	L 88-78 at Rider (NET 242, Quad 4)
Fairfield	Out	16	W 88-64 vs. Siena (NET 353, Quad 4)

1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
2. Tennessee, North Carolina, Marquette, Kansas
3. Iowa State, Alabama, Duke, Baylor
4. Creighton, Auburn, Kentucky, Illinois
5. BYU, Clemson, Wisconsin, San Diego State
6. Dayton, Florida, St. Mary’s, Washington State
7. South Carolina, Northwestern, Nebraska, Nevada
8. Mississippi State, Texas, Utah State, Texas Tech
9. Michigan State, TCU, Oklahoma, Boise State
10. Gonzaga, Florida Atlantic, Virginia, Colorado State
11. New Mexico, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Utah
12. Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
13. McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, Louisiana Tech
14. UC Irvine, College of Charleston, Akron, High Point
15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
16. Lipscomb, Fairfield, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Virginia, Colorado State, New Mexico, Seton Hall

Last Four In: Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Utah

First Four Out: Drake, Wake Forest, Colorado, Pitt

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Iowa, Cincinnati, Ohio State

And Then The Next Four After That: Richmond, Oregon, Syracuse, Kansas State

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Memphis, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Xavier

Kansas, Kentucky, Butler, and Colorado State with the biggest wins over the weekend.

Interestingly, Wake Forest now has a Quad 1 win because their home win over Florida was reclassified since Florida keeps winning. I’m keeping them out for now.

I’d love to say that NC State’s win over Clemson moves them onto the board, but I still have them 2 spots behind the last team on my board. They need a lot more to get into the mix. The upcoming Syracuse, BC, and FSU games are obviously must wins, and it would help if they win by a lot to boost their metrics.

Team	2/16 Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Marquette	2	3	L 81-53 at UConn (NET 4, Quad 1-A)
Kansas	3	2	W 69-59 at Oklahoma (NET 39, Quad 1-A)
Auburn	3	4	L 70-59 vs. Kentucky (NET 22, Quad 1-B)
Duke	4	3	W 76-67 at Florida State (NET 96, Quad 2)
Wisconsin	4	5	L 88-86 at Iowa (NET 67, Quad 1-B)
Clemson	5	6	L 78-77 vs. NC State (NET 75, Quad 2)
Texas Tech	5	6	L 82-74 at Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A)
BYU	5	7	L 93-83 at Oklahoma St. (NET 125, Quad 2)
Creighton	6	4	W 79-57 at Butler (NET 57, Quad 1-B)
Florida	6	5	W 88-82 at Georgia (NET 98, Quad 2)
Florida Atlantic	6	8	L 90-86 at South Florida (NET 92, Quad 2)
South Carolina	7	8	L 64-63 vs. LSU (NET 88, Quad 3)
Oklahoma	7	8	L 67-57 vs. Kansas (NET 16, Quad 1-B)
Kentucky	7	5	W 70-59 at Auburn (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Utah State	7	9	L 75-55 at Colorado State (NET 25, Quad 1-A)
Texas	8	9	L 82-61 at Houston (NET 1, Quad 1-A)
Washington State	8	6	W 72-59 vs. Stanford (NET 103, Quad 3)
New Mexico	8	10	L 81-70 at San Diego State (NET 18, Quad 1-A)
St. Mary’s	8	7	Idle
TCU	9	7	W 75-72 at Kansas State (NET 81, Quad 2)
Virginia	9	8	W 49-47 vs. Wake Forest (NET 40, Quad 2)
Colorado State	10	7	W 75-55 vs. Utah State (NET 30, Quad 1-B)
Indiana State	10	Out	L 74-69 at Southern Illinois (NET 109, Quad 2)
Nebraska	11	10	W 68-49 vs. Penn State (NET 99, Quad 3)
Utah	11	12	W 70-69 at UCLA (NET 105, Quad 2)
Cincinnati	12	11	W 76-74 at UCF (NET 68, Quad 1-B)
Boise State	12	11	W 90-66 vs. Fresno State (NET 208, Quad 4)
UNC Wilmington	13	14	L 73-72 vs. Elon (NET 306, Quad 4)
Akron	14	13	W 73-62 at Buffalo (NET 345, Quad 4)
Morehead State	15	14	L 88-82 at UT-Martin (NET 211, Quad 3)
High Point	14	15	W 99-74 vs. Radford (NET 248, Quad 4)
Providence	Out	12	W 81-70 vs. DePaul (NET 317, Quad 4)

1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
2. Kansas, Tennessee, Iowa State, North Carolina
3. Marquette, Baylor, Alabama, Duke
4. Auburn, Illinois, Dayton, Creighton
5. Wisconsin, San Diego State, Kentucky, Florida
6. Clemson, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Washington State
7. BYU, St. Mary’s, TCU, Colorado State
8. Oklahoma, Virginia, Florida Atlantic, South Carolina
9. Northwestern, Mississippi State, Texas, Utah State
10. New Mexico, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Gonzaga
11. Nevada, Cincinnati, Drake, Grand Canyon, Boise State, Ole Miss
12. Utah, Providence, Princeton, James Madison
13. McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Akron
14. Vermont, UNC Wilmington, Louisiana Tech, High Point
15. Morehead State, Oakland, Eastern Washington, Colgate
16. Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, Southern, Merrimack, South Dakota St., Norfolk State

Last Four Byes: Nebraska, Gonzaga, Nevada, Cincinnati

Last Four In: Boise State, Ole Miss, Utah, Providence

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Indiana State, Seton Hall, Villanova

Next Four Out: Pitt, Butler, Colorado, Xavier

And Then The Next Four After That: SMU, Oregon, St. John’s, Virginia Tech

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Richmond, Ohio State, Kansas State, Syracuse

In midweek action, the biggest game was Texas Tech’s blowout of Kansas. That moved the Red Raiders up three lines to a 5 and combined with Iowa State’s win at Cincinnati, swapped the Cyclones and Jayhawks.

Indiana State had a bad loss at home against Illinois State that dropped the Sycamores to a 10 seed. It also puts more pressure on them to win to Missouri Valley Tournament as an at-large bid is not a sure thing.

Texas A&M’s loss at Vanderbilt drops them back to bubble territory; conversely, New Mexico’s win at Nevada gets them off the bubble for now.

South Carolina’s embarrassing loss at Auburn drops them two lines. Not that losing at Auburn is a big deal, but losing by 40 hurts your metrics.

Pitt had a huge win at Virginia that moves them up, not into the field, but “into the conversation”, as they say.

Movers List:

Team	2/12 Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Kansas ↓	2	3	L 79-50 at Texas Tech (NET 25, Quad 1-A)
Iowa St. ↑	3	2	W 68-59 at Cincinnati (NET 36, Quad 1-A)
Creighton ↓	5	6	W 94-72 vs. Georgetown (NET 198, Quad 4)
S. Carolina ↓	5	7	L 101-61 at Auburn (NET 6, Quad 1-A)
BYU ↑	6	5	W 90-88 vs. UCF (NET 65, Quad 2)
Oklahoma ↓	6	7	L 79-62 at Baylor (NET 12, Quad 1-A)
Indiana St. ↓	7	10	L 80-67 vs. Illinois State (NET 192, Quad 4)
Michigan St. ↑	7	6	W 80-72 at Penn State (NET 98, Quad 2)
Virginia ↓	7	9	L 74-63 vs. Pitt (NET 52, Quad 2)
Texas Tech ↑	8	5	W 79-50 vs. Kansas (NET 17, Quad 1-A)
Texas A&M ↓	8	10	L 74-73 at Vanderbilt (NET 220, Quad 3)
Texas ↑	9	8	Idle
Kentucky ↑	9	7	W 75-63 vs. Ole Miss (NET 61, Quad 2)
Colorado St. ↓	9	10	L 71-55 at San Diego State (NET 18, Quad 1-A)
Mississippi St. ↑	10	9	Idle
TCU ↑	10	9	W 81-65 vs. West Virginia (NET 154, Quad 3)
New Mexico ↑	10	8	W 83-82 at Nevada (NET 49, Quad 1-B)
Ole Miss ↓	10	11	L 75-63 at Kentucky (NET 24, Quad 1-A)
Gonzaga ↑	11	10	Idle
Cincinnati ↓	11	12	L 68-59 vs. Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A)
Drake ↑	12	11	W 78-75 at Evansville (NET 175, Quad 3)
Butler ↓	12	Out	L 78-72 vs. Marquette (NET 10, Quad 1-A)
Boise St. ↑	Out	12	Idle
High Point ↓	14	15	L 86-81 vs. USC-Upstate (NET 286, Quad 4)
Morehead St. ↑	15	14	L 69-68 at Little Rock (NET 227, Quad 3)

1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
2. Tennessee, Marquette, North Carolina, Iowa State
3. Kansas, Auburn, Baylor, Alabama
4. Duke, Wisconsin, Dayton, Illinois
5. Clemson, San Diego State, Texas Tech, BYU
6. Creighton, Michigan State, Florida, Florida Atlantic
7. South Carolina, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Utah State
8. Texas, Washington State, New Mexico, St. Mary’s
9. Northwestern, Mississippi State, TCU, Virginia
10. Texas A&M, Colorado State, Gonzaga, Indiana State
11. Grand Canyon, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Utah, Nevada, Drake
12. Cincinnati, Boise State, Princeton, James Madison
13. Samford, McNeese State, UNC Wilmington, UC Irvine
14. Akron, Louisiana Tech, Vermont, Morehead State
15. High Point, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Colgate
16. Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, Southern, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State

Last Four Byes: Gonzaga, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Utah

Last Four In: Nevada, Drake, Cincinnati, Boise State

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Villanova, Butler, Providence

Next Four Out: Colorado, St. John’s, Pitt, Xavier

And Then The Next Four After That: Seton Hall, Memphis, Virginia Tech, Kansas State

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Oregon, Syracuse, Richmond, SMU