Tag: NCAA

Bracketology Update 3/8

Headlines

  • Nevada and Florida strengthen their positions with Quad 1-A wins
  • Colorado moves into the field with a Quad 1 win at Oregon
  • Wake Forest loses a game they couldn’t afford to lose

Top Seeds

Tennessee has it for now, but Arizona is close, and don’t count out North Carolina and even Iowa State. The conference tournaments will tell the tale.

Bubble Watch

Most of the teams listed as 9 or 10 seeds below are near-locks at this point. That includes Oklahoma, TCU, Florida Atlantic, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Boise State, and Colorado State. I suppose if Colorado State lost to Air Force on Saturday and then lost in the first round of the conference tournament, they might be in trouble. So we will stick with the term “near-locks” to refer to this group. They are in unless something really comes apart in these last couple of games.

After that, we get into the real bubble teams. These are the teams that if the Selection Show were today, I would not be shocked if they did not get in. Here is how I currently rank them:

  1. Seton Hall – huge win over Villanova. Their metrics are bad, but I think the win quality is too much to ignore.
  2. Virginia – they helped themselves this week by not playing while others around them lost.
  3. Colorado – their metrics are great, but the committee needed another Quad 1 win to justify putting them in. The Buffaloes delivered at Oregon. Careful with their last game at Oregon State who just beat Utah.
  4. St. John’s – if they beat Georgetown on Saturday, they will have won their last five.
  5. Villanova – monster game against Creighton tomorrow. A win would make them a lock. A loss will drop them to 17-14 overall. Another loss in the Big East tourney would be 15, and that may be just too many losses. Since 2016, only two teams with 15 losses have received at-large bids: Alabama 2018 and Florida 2019. Both of those teams were 19-15.
  6. New Mexico – huge game at Utah State on Saturday. A chance to win their way in. A loss doesn’t mean they’re out, but the odds get longer.
  7. Drake – on to the Missouri Valley tournament. If they meet Indiana State in the final, will the loser get in? That is the question. They may benefit from the teams above them losing (Villanova, New Mexico).
  8. CUT LINE IS HERE
  9. Providence – playing UConn at home tomorrow. In if they win, probably not if they lose.
  10. Pitt – must win game vs. NC State. NC State at home isn’t that great of a win, but the thing is, Villanova, New Mexico, and Providence all have extremely difficult games. If those three lose and the Panthers win, does that move them into the field? I think maybe it will.
  11. Texas A&M – they just won’t die. Six Quad 1 wins is a lot. Then again, four Quad 3 losses is a lot too. If they win at Ole Miss on Saturday, they have a shot.
  12. Utah – withering like cut grass. Tomorrow night’s game at Oregon could be the final nail – or it could be their path to get back in the mix.
  13. Wake Forest – the Georgia Tech loss just about finished them off.
  14. Iowa – no chance to make it unless they beat Illinois on Sunday.

ACC Watch

  • Wake Forest is dead in my opinion unless they win the ACC Tournament. I don’t think beating Clemson will be enough. I guess a win over Clemson and then a win over Carolina or Duke in the tournament might do it.
  • Virginia I think is going to squeak in so long as they don’t stumble against Georgia Tech on Saturday. Lunardi has them as the last team in. I think they are a little better than that.
  • Pitt has a shot. At a minimum, they have to beat NC State on Saturday, and then reach the semis of the ACC Tournament. I’m not saying they’re in if they do that. Probably need to reach the finals of the tournament, and then you may as well just win the darn thing.

Elevator Report

TeamPrior SeedNew SeedRecent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Marquette23L 74-67 vs. UConn (NET 3, Quad 1-A)
Baylor32W 93-85 vs. Texas (NET 26, Quad 1-B)
BYU45L 68-63 at Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A)
Kentucky54W 93-77 vs. Vanderbilt (NET 214, Quad 4)
San Diego State56L 62-58 at UNLV (NET 75, Quad 1-B)
Florida65W 105-87 vs. Alabama (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Washington State67L 74-68 vs. Washington (NET 66, Quad 2)
Texas78L 93-85 at Baylor (NET 13, Quad 1-A)
Boise State810L 76-66 vs. Nevada (NET 34, Quad 2)
Nevada86W 76-66 at Boise State (NET 28, Quad 1-A)
Northwestern910L 53-49 at Michigan State (NET 23, Quad 1-A)
Michigan State98W 53-49 vs. Northwestern (NET 52, Quad 2)
TCU109W 93-81 at West Virginia (NET 147, Quad 3)
FAU109W 80-76 at North Texas (NET 86, Quad 2)
Villanova1011L 66-56 at Seton Hall (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Seton Hall1110W 66-56 vs. Villanova (NET 31, Quad 2)
Utah11OutL 92-85 at Oregon State (NET 159, Quad 3)
ColoradoOut11W 79-75 at Oregon (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
Lipscomb16OutLost in Atlantic Sun tourney
StetsonOut16Advanced to finals of Atlantic Sun tourney
  1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
  2. Arizona, Iowa State, North Carolina, Baylor
  3. Kansas, Marquette, Creighton, Duke
  4. Auburn, Alabama, Kentucky, Illinois
  5. BYU, Clemson, Florida, Wisconsin
  6. Dayton, Nevada, San Diego State, South Carolina
  7. Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Washington State, St. Mary’s
  8. Nebraska, Utah State, Michigan State, Texas
  9. Oklahoma, TCU, Florida Atlantic, Mississippi State
  10. Northwestern, Boise State, Colorado State, Seton Hall
  11. Virginia, Colorado, St. John’s, Villanova, New Mexico, Drake
  12. Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
  13. McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
  14. College of Charleston, Louisiana Tech, Akron, High Point
  15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
  16. Quinnipiac, South Dakota St., Stetson, Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Colorado State, Seton Hall, Virginia, Colorado

Last Four In: St. John’s, Villanova, New Mexico, Drake

First Four Out: Providence, Pitt, Texas A&M, Utah

Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Iowa, Richmond, Ohio State

Bracketology 3/4 Update

Headlines

  • Tennessee grabs a #1 seed with a win at Alabama
  • Gonzaga moves into lock status with a win at St. Mary’s
  • Providence drops out of the field after losing at home to Villanova
  • Drake moves into the field – for now

Top Seeds

Tennessee leapfrogs Arizona, for now, with their win at Alabama. The last #1 seed is still between Tennessee, Arizona, and North Carolina and will come down to the conference tournaments.

Bubble Watch

Let me start with this. Gonzaga is in. They are a lock and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

Colorado State is moving towards lock territory. I think they would get in even if they lose their last game – but I wouldn’t advise it.

After Colorado State, I rank them:

  1. Villanova – big win at Providence
  2. St. John’s – idle
  3. Virginia – looked terrible against Duke, hanging by a thread
  4. Utah – blowout win over Cal
  5. New Mexico – lost at Boise, not a bad loss per se, but any loss at this point is damaging
  6. Drake – good win vs. Bradley
  7. Seton Hall – blown out at UConn
  8. CUT LINE IS HERE
  9. Providence – damaging home loss to Villanova
  10. Colorado – beat Stanford, who isn’t any good
  11. Wake Forest – yet another road loss at VT
  12. Pitt – blowout road win over BC
  13. Iowa – making a late push after a quality win at Northwestern

ACC Watch

  • Wake Forest is in big trouble. Their loss to Virginia Tech brings their record away from home to 3-11 on the season, and one of the three wins was against Towson. Beating Georgia Tech and Clemson is a must, and I’m not sure even that will be enough.
  • Virginia looked terrible, again, against Duke. I still think they will get in if they beat Georgia Tech in their last game, but a quality win in the tournament would help.
  • Pitt is alive, but I still think they need to win out AND get a flashy win in the tournament.
  • Nobody else has a shot.

Elevator Report

TeamPrior SeedNew SeedRecent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Arizona12W 103-83 vs. Oregon (NET 65, Quad 2)
Tennessee21W 81-74 at Alabama (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Kansas23L 82-74 at Baylor (NET 13, Quad 1-A)
Iowa St.32W 60-52 at UCF (NET 66, Quad 1-B)
Alabama34L 81-74 vs. Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Creighton43W 89-75 vs. Marquette (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Kentucky45W 111-102 vs. Arkansas (NET 120, Quad 3)
BYU54W 87-75 vs. TCU (NET 38, Quad 2)
St. Mary’s67L 70-57 vs. Gonzaga (NET 17, Quad 1-B)
South Carolina76W 82-76 vs. Florida (NET 33, Quad 2)
Northwestern79L 87-80 vs. Iowa (NET 57, Quad 2)
Nevada78W 74-66 vs. Fresno State (NET 213, Quad 4)
Nebraska78W 67-56 vs. Rutgers (NET 91, Quad 3)
Mississippi St.89L 78-63 at Auburn (NET 6, Quad 1-A)
Texas87W 81-65 vs. Oklahoma State (NET 115, Quad 3)
Texas Tech87W 81-70 at West Virginia (NET 144, Quad 3)
Boise State98W 89-79 vs. New Mexico (NET 28, Quad 1-B)
TCU910L 87-75 at BYU (NET 12, Quad 1-A)
Gonzaga107W 70-57 at St. Mary’s (NET 16, Quad 1-A)
Virginia1011L 73-48 at Duke (NET 9, Quad 1-A)
Villanova1110W 71-60 at Providence (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Providence11OutL 71-60 vs. Villanova (NET 26, Quad 1-B)
DrakeOut11W 74-66 vs. Bradley (NET 60, Quad 2)
  1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
  2. Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette
  3. Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke
  4. Alabama, Illinois, Auburn, BYU
  5. Kentucky, Clemson, San Diego State, Wisconsin
  6. Dayton, South Carolina, Washington State, Florida
  7. Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Texas, St. Mary’s
  8. Nevada, Boise State, Nebraska, Utah State
  9. Northwestern, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
  10. TCU, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State, Villanova
  11. St. John’s, Virginia, Utah, New Mexico, Drake, Seton Hall
  12. Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
  13. McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
  14. Louisiana Tech, College of Charleston, Akron, High Point
  15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
  16. Lipscomb, Quinnipiac, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Colorado State, Villanova, St. John’s, Virginia

Last Four In: Utah, New Mexico, Drake, Seton Hall

First Four Out: Providence, Colorado, Wake Forest, Pitt

Next Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech

And Then The Next Four After That: Ohio State, Richmond, Ole Miss, Syracuse

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Memphis, Kansas State, Oregon, Appalachian State

Bracketology 3/1 Update

Gainers

  • Baylor, Kentucky, BYU, Northwestern, Nevada, Texas, and St. John’s with Quad 1-A wins

Losers

  • Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Wake Forest with Quad 2 losses

Top Seeds

Purdue, UConn, and Houston are easy. The battle for the fourth #1 seed is between Arizona, Tennessee, and North Carolina, and it probably won’t be decided until the conference tournaments.

Bubble Watch

Here is how I see it right now. 12 teams competing for 9 bids. I would group them as follows:

90% Confident: Gonzaga, Virginia, Colorado State

I am 90+% confident these teams are in right now. They could still lose their way out, though. Gonzaga is probably going to get two more chances to play St. Mary’s. Winning either of those makes them a lock.

60% Confident: New Mexico, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova

I have no idea how to order these five, but the main thing I want to say is, I think they are all ahead of the next group. If the tournament started today, I believe all five of these teams would be in. But it also wouldn’t be the shock of my life if one of them were left out in favor of someone from the next group. The teams in this group still have opportunities to either move up to lock status or to move down into the next group.

Problems: Utah, Drake, Wake Forest, Colorado

If there are no bid-stealers, there is room for one team from this group. Utah has some good wins, but they are 2-6 in their last eight games. Drake is, well, Drake. I don’t understand why Lunardi and others are not including them in the at-large conversation; they have three Quad 1 wins, including a good neutral court win against Nevada. But their overall schedule strength is weak and it’s hard to see them making it if they can’t win the MVC Tournament. Wake Forest and Colorado are similar, each has great metrics but only one Quad 1 win. Wake is 1-4 against Quad 1, 5-6 against Quad 2, and 3-10 away from home. That’s a tournament team? Colorado’s best win is… at Washington? Not good enough.

ACC Watch

  • Wake Forest is in trouble again with their loss to Notre Dame. They MUST win at least one of their remaining Quad 1 games at Virginia Tech and home against Clemson. They have been terrible away from home this year, so the VT game is really big for them.
  • Virginia has at BC, at Duke, and Georgia Tech at home. I think as long as they win two of those three, they will be OK.
  • Pitt has a faint pulse for an at-large bid. Maybe, just maybe, if they win out AND get a flashy win in the tournament.
  • Nobody else has a shot.

Elevator Report

Team2/26 SeedNew SeedRecent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Auburn34L 92-84 at Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Baylor43W 62-54 at TCU (NET 38, Quad 1-A)
Wisconsin45L 74-70 at Indiana (NET 105, Quad 2)
Kentucky54W 91-89 at Mississippi State (NET 31, Quad 1-A)
Dayton56W 80-66 vs. Davidson (NET 106, Quad 3)
BYU65W 76-68 at Kansas (NET 17, Quad 1-A)
Texas Tech68L 81-69 vs. Texas (NET 34, Quad 2)
St. Mary’s76W 83-57 at Pepperdine (NET 244, Quad 4)
Mississippi State78L 91-89 vs. Kentucky (NET 19, Quad 1-A)
TCU79L 62-54 vs. Baylor (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Nebraska87L 78-69 at Ohio State (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Northwestern87W 68-61 at Maryland (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
Oklahoma89L 58-45 at Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A)
Nevada97W 77-74 at Colorado State (NET 29, Quad 1-A)
Colorado State910L 77-74 vs. Nevada (NET 37, Quad 1-B)
Texas108W 81-69 at Texas Tech (NET 42, Quad 1-B)
Seton Hall1011L 85-64 at Creighton (NET 12, Quad 1-A)
Virginia1110W 72-68 at Boston College (NET 92, Quad 2)
Wake Forest11OutL 70-65 at Notre Dame (NET 135, Quad 2)
Drake12OutW 107-105 at UIC (NET 179, Quad 3)
St. John’sOut11W 82-59 at Butler (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
VillanovaOut11W 75-47 vs. Georgetown (NET 207, Quad 4)
UC Irvine1314W 89-64 at Cal State Northridge (NET 221, Quad 3)
Louisiana Tech1413W 90-84 at Western Kentucky (NET 145, Quad 3)
UNC Wilmington14OutL 69-58 vs. Hofstra (NET 110, Quad 3)
College of CharlestonOut14W 96-73 vs. Campbell (NET 291, Quad 4)
Quinnipiac16OutL 88-78 at Rider (NET 242, Quad 4)
FairfieldOut16W 88-64 vs. Siena (NET 353, Quad 4)
  1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
  2. Tennessee, North Carolina, Marquette, Kansas
  3. Iowa State, Alabama, Duke, Baylor
  4. Creighton, Auburn, Kentucky, Illinois
  5. BYU, Clemson, Wisconsin, San Diego State
  6. Dayton, Florida, St. Mary’s, Washington State
  7. South Carolina, Northwestern, Nebraska, Nevada
  8. Mississippi State, Texas, Utah State, Texas Tech
  9. Michigan State, TCU, Oklahoma, Boise State
  10. Gonzaga, Florida Atlantic, Virginia, Colorado State
  11. New Mexico, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Utah
  12. Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
  13. McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, Louisiana Tech
  14. UC Irvine, College of Charleston, Akron, High Point
  15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
  16. Lipscomb, Fairfield, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Virginia, Colorado State, New Mexico, Seton Hall

Last Four In: Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Utah

First Four Out: Drake, Wake Forest, Colorado, Pitt

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Iowa, Cincinnati, Ohio State

And Then The Next Four After That: Richmond, Oregon, Syracuse, Kansas State

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Memphis, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Xavier

Bracketology: 2/26 Update & Weekend Roundup

Big Winners

  • Kentucky blowing out Alabama
  • South Carolina getting a much-needed win at Ole Miss
  • Wake Forest finally getting that Quad 1 win they needed over Duke

Big Losers

  • Michigan State losing at home to Ohio State
  • New Mexico with a terrible home loss to Air Force, putting them back on the bubble
  • Virginia, Texas A&M, Texas, and Utah with non-competitive losses to Quad 1-A teams
  • Grand Canyon losing at home to Abilene Christian and saying goodbye to any hope they had of getting an at-large bid

Top Seeds

Purdue, UConn, and Houston are easy. The battle for the fourth #1 seed continues and Arizona‘s loss to Washington State brings Carolina back into the mix. I am staying with the Wildcats for now, but it’s very close. And don’t count Kansas out.

Bubble Watch

The way I see it, there is a pretty big drop off after the Seton Hall/Gonzaga/Wake Forest/Providence/New Mexico/Virginia group. I feel strongly that all those teams are in right now. After that? Pick two from Utah, Drake, Texas A&M, Villanova, St. John’s, Cincinnati, Colorado, and Ole Miss. I went with Utah and Drake, but I would find it hard to argue with any of those teams.

The Missouri Valley situation is interesting. Is it a two-bid league with Indiana State and Drake? Most of the experts don’t think so. I put Drake in as my last at-large team, not really because I like their chances, but everyone else in that group above is so flawed. Villanova, Texas A&M, and Cincinnati got blown out over the weekend. St. John’s has but two Quad 1 wins (same as Drake) in 11 tries. Colorado has but one. Ole Miss has lost five of six. Does anybody want this last spot?

ACC Watch

  • Wake Forest got themselves in for now. They have two Quad 1 games left at Virginia Tech and home against Clemson. One of those should be enough to seal it.
  • Virginia hasn’t scored 50 points in any of its last three games. They are still in primarily because of the ineptitude of the teams below them, but they had better beat Boston College on Wednesday.
  • Pitt beat Virginia Tech to keep themselves relevant. At Clemson tomorrow night is a must win for them to have a shot at an at-large bid.
  • Virginia Tech and Syracuse are probably toast for at-large bids. Even if they win out, I don’t think it will be enough.
  • NC State still has a “mathematical possibility” if they win out, simply because of the strength of their remaining schedule. Of course, the probability of them winning out is somewhere around 0.5%. They actually have a better chance to win the tournament.
Team2/23 SeedNew SeedRecent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Iowa State23W 71-64 vs. West Virginia (NET 148, Quad 3)
Marquette32W 88-64 vs. Xavier (NET 64, Quad 2)
Creighton34L 80-66 at St. John’s (NET 44, Quad 1-B)
Auburn43W 97-76 at Georgia (NET 97, Quad 2)
BYU56L 84-74 at Kansas State (NET 73, Quad 1-B)
Kentucky65W 117-95 vs. Alabama (NET 6, Quad 1-A)
Utah State78Idle
Michigan State79L 60-57 vs. Ohio State (NET 66, Quad 2)
TCU87W 75-57 vs. Cincinnati (NET 45, Quad 2)
South Carolina87W 72-59 at Ole Miss (NET 75, Quad 1-B)
New Mexico911L 78-77 vs. Air Force (NET 265, Quad 4)
Florida Atlantic910L 78-74 at Memphis (NET 79, Quad 2)
Texas910L 86-67 at Kansas (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Northwestern98W 76-62 vs. Michigan (NET 120, Quad 3)
Colorado State109L 66-60 at UNLV (NET 81, Quad 2)
Nevada109W 84-63 at San Jose State (NET 250, Quad 4)
Virginia1011L 54-44 vs. North Carolina (NET 9, Quad 1-A)
Boise State109W 92-72 at Wyoming (NET 169, Quad 3)
Texas A&M11OutL 86-51 at Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Grand Canyon1112L 79-73 at Abilene Christian (NET 254, Quad 4)
Utah1112L 89-65 at Colorado (NET 34, Quad 1-A)
Drake1112L 91-77 at Northern Iowa (NET 119, Quad 2)
Providence1211Idle
Ole Miss12OutL 72-59 vs. South Carolina (NET 48, Quad 2)
Wake ForestOut11W 83-79 vs. Duke (NET 10, Quad 1-A)
Indiana StateOut12W 88-73 vs. UIC (NET 179, Quad 4)
UC Irvine1314L 92-88 at UC San Diego (NET 110, Quad 2)
Akron1413W 83-70 vs. Kent State (NET 171, Quad 4)
Quinnipiac16OutL 85-81 vs. Fairfield (NET 158, Quad 3)
FairfieldOut16W 85-81 at Quinnipiac (NET 171, Quad 3)
  1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
  2. North Carolina, Kansas, Tennessee, Marquette
  3. Iowa State, Duke, Alabama, Auburn
  4. Creighton, Baylor, Wisconsin, Illinois
  5. San Diego State, Kentucky, Dayton, Clemson
  6. Florida, Texas Tech, BYU, Washington State
  7. St. Mary’s, South Carolina, Mississippi State, TCU
  8. Nebraska, Utah State, Oklahoma, Northwestern
  9. Michigan State, Nevada, Colorado State, Boise State
  10. Florida Atlantic, Texas, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
  11. Wake Forest, Providence, New Mexico, Virginia, Indiana State, Princeton
  12. Utah, Drake, James Madison, Grand Canyon
  13. McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Vermont
  14. UNC Wilmington, Akron, Louisiana Tech, High Point
  15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
  16. Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, Southern, Merrimack, South Dakota St., Norfolk State

Last Four Byes: Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Wake Forest, Providence

Last Four In: New Mexico, Virginia, Utah, Drake

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Villanova, St. John’s, Cincinnati

Next Four Out: Colorado, Ole Miss, Pitt, Virginia Tech

And Then The Next Four After That: Iowa, Oregon, Richmond, Kansas State

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Butler, Memphis, Ohio State, Syracuse

Bracketology 2/23 Update

  • Creighton, BYU, Utah State, and New Mexico all got Quad 1 wins this week and are moving up as a result
  • Kentucky, Michigan State, Virginia, Texas A&M, and Cincinnati all dropped as a result of Quad 2/3 losses

There is some movement around the cut line as I continue to take a closer look at the resumes. I moved Seton Hall into the bracket, not because they did anything this week, but more that after reviewing their resume further, it’s better than I initially thought.

Gonzaga is an interesting case. They have just the one Quad 1 win, but it’s a good one, at Kentucky. Their metrics are outstanding – 22 in the NET, 19 in ESPN BPI, 20 on kenpom. I think they might get credit for attempting to play a rigorous non-conference schedule. They lost to Purdue and UConn, no shame there. They beat Syracuse, UCLA, and USC on neutral courts, but none of those teams happens to be very good this year. That’s not Gonzaga’s fault. They certainly pass the “eye test”. They have two more opportunities for Quad 1s in their last two games at San Francisco and at St. Mary’s. I think winning one of those two will probably be enough.

The Big East situation continues to be confusing. Butler, Xavier, and St. John’s have played themselves out of the mix for now, which leaves Seton Hall, Providence, and Villanova among the teams battling for the last few spots in the tournament. It is very difficult to differentiate them. Seton Hall and Providence appear a hair better than Villanova, so I have them both among the last four teams in.

In the ACC, Virginia Tech helped themselves with their win over Virginia. It was “only” a Quad 2, but the margin of victory helped their NET and their predictive metrics. Their upcoming game against Pitt on Saturday has the feeling of an elimination game.

Wake Forest, same old story. No matter how bad they beat Pitt, they need Quad 1 wins. They have three chances remaining, the next three Saturdays: Duke at home, at Virginia Tech, and Clemson at home. Win two of those three and they’re in. Win zero and they’re out. Win one and… I dunno. My guess is, that won’t be enough, but it may depend on what other teams do.

Pitt had a disastrous game against Wake and probably needs to win out to have a chance at an at-large bid.

NC State got a second Quad 1 win as a result of Wake Forest moving up to #27 in the NET, which makes their home win against Wake a Quad 1. But they’re still woefully short right now. They have three Quad 1s remaining (at UNC, vs. Duke, at Pitt), so there is still an opportunity. If they win out, they would be close.

Syracuse doesn’t have the strength of schedule remaining to get there, even if they were to win out.

Team2/19 SeedNew SeedRecent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Baylor34L 78-71 at BYU (NET 11, Quad 1-A)
Creighton43W 85-66 vs. UConn (NET 4, Quad 1-A)
Dayton45L 71-67 at George Mason (NET 79, Quad 2)
Wisconsin54W 74-70 vs. Maryland (NET 71, Quad 2)
Florida56L 98-93 at Alabama (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Kentucky56L 75-74 at LSU (NET 85, Quad 2)
Clemson65W 81-57 at Georgia Tech (NET 146, Quad 3)
Michigan State67L 78-71 vs. Iowa (NET 62, Quad 2)
BYU75W 78-71 vs. Baylor (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
TCU78L 82-81 at Texas Tech (NET 28, Quad 1-A)
Colorado State710L 68-66 at New Mexico (NET 20, Quad 1-A)
Oklahoma87Idle
Virginia810L 75-41 at Virginia Tech (NET 52, Quad 1-B)
Florida Atlantic89W 80-70 vs. SMU (NET 40, Quad 2)
Mississippi State97W 83-71 vs. Ole Miss (NET 68, Quad 2)
Utah State97W 68-63 vs. San Diego State (NET 18, Quad 1-B)
Nebraska108W 85-70 at Indiana (NET 105, Quad 2)
New Mexico109W 68-66 vs. Colorado State (NET 25, Quad 1-B)
Texas A&M1011L 78-71 vs. Arkansas (NET 120, Quad 3)
Nevada1110W 76-58 vs. Wyoming (NET 160, Quad 3)
Cincinnati11OutL 80-76 vs. Oklahoma State (NET 114, Quad 3)
Mississippi1112L 83-71 at Mississippi State (NET 36, Quad 1-A)
Utah1211Idle
Seton HallOut11Idle
Akron1314L 72-64 at Toledo (NET 129, Quad 2)
Vermont1413W 94-80 at Albany (NET 260, Quad 4)
  1. Purdue, Houston, UConn, Arizona
  2. Kansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, Iowa State
  3. Marquette, Duke, Alabama, Creighton
  4. Baylor, Auburn, Wisconsin, Illinois
  5. Dayton, San Diego State, Clemson, BYU
  6. Texas Tech, Florida, Washington State, Kentucky
  7. St. Mary’s, Utah State, Michigan State, Mississippi State
  8. TCU, South Carolina, Nebraska, Oklahoma
  9. New Mexico, Florida Atlantic, Texas, Northwestern
  10. Colorado State, Nevada, Virginia, Boise State
  11. Gonzaga, Drake, Grand Canyon, Utah, Texas A&M, Seton Hall
  12. Providence, Ole Miss, Princeton, James Madison
  13. McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Vermont
  14. UNC Wilmington, Akron, Louisiana Tech, High Point
  15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
  16. Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, Southern, Merrimack, South Dakota St., Norfolk State

Last Four Byes: Virginia, Boise State, Gonzaga, Utah

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Providence, Ole Miss

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Villanova, Cincinnati, Indiana State

Next Four Out: Colorado, Virginia Tech, Iowa, Oregon

And Then The Next Four After That: Butler, SMU, Pitt, St. John’s

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Richmond, Xavier, Syracuse, Memphis

Bracketology: 2/19 Update & Weekend Roundup

Kansas, Kentucky, Butler, and Colorado State with the biggest wins over the weekend.

Interestingly, Wake Forest now has a Quad 1 win because their home win over Florida was reclassified since Florida keeps winning. I’m keeping them out for now.

I’d love to say that NC State’s win over Clemson moves them onto the board, but I still have them 2 spots behind the last team on my board. They need a lot more to get into the mix. The upcoming Syracuse, BC, and FSU games are obviously must wins, and it would help if they win by a lot to boost their metrics.

Team2/16 SeedNew SeedRecent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Marquette23L 81-53 at UConn (NET 4, Quad 1-A)
Kansas32W 69-59 at Oklahoma (NET 39, Quad 1-A)
Auburn34L 70-59 vs. Kentucky (NET 22, Quad 1-B)
Duke43W 76-67 at Florida State (NET 96, Quad 2)
Wisconsin45L 88-86 at Iowa (NET 67, Quad 1-B)
Clemson56L 78-77 vs. NC State (NET 75, Quad 2)
Texas Tech56L 82-74 at Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A)
BYU57L 93-83 at Oklahoma St. (NET 125, Quad 2)
Creighton64W 79-57 at Butler (NET 57, Quad 1-B)
Florida65W 88-82 at Georgia (NET 98, Quad 2)
Florida Atlantic68L 90-86 at South Florida (NET 92, Quad 2)
South Carolina78L 64-63 vs. LSU (NET 88, Quad 3)
Oklahoma78L 67-57 vs. Kansas (NET 16, Quad 1-B)
Kentucky75W 70-59 at Auburn (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Utah State79L 75-55 at Colorado State (NET 25, Quad 1-A)
Texas89L 82-61 at Houston (NET 1, Quad 1-A)
Washington State86W 72-59 vs. Stanford (NET 103, Quad 3)
New Mexico810L 81-70 at San Diego State (NET 18, Quad 1-A)
St. Mary’s87Idle
TCU97W 75-72 at Kansas State (NET 81, Quad 2)
Virginia98W 49-47 vs. Wake Forest (NET 40, Quad 2)
Colorado State107W 75-55 vs. Utah State (NET 30, Quad 1-B)
Indiana State10OutL 74-69 at Southern Illinois (NET 109, Quad 2)
Nebraska1110W 68-49 vs. Penn State (NET 99, Quad 3)
Utah1112W 70-69 at UCLA (NET 105, Quad 2)
Cincinnati1211W 76-74 at UCF (NET 68, Quad 1-B)
Boise State1211W 90-66 vs. Fresno State (NET 208, Quad 4)
UNC Wilmington1314L 73-72 vs. Elon (NET 306, Quad 4)
Akron1413W 73-62 at Buffalo (NET 345, Quad 4)
Morehead State1514L 88-82 at UT-Martin (NET 211, Quad 3)
High Point1415W 99-74 vs. Radford (NET 248, Quad 4)
ProvidenceOut12W 81-70 vs. DePaul (NET 317, Quad 4)
  1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
  2. Kansas, Tennessee, Iowa State, North Carolina
  3. Marquette, Baylor, Alabama, Duke
  4. Auburn, Illinois, Dayton, Creighton
  5. Wisconsin, San Diego State, Kentucky, Florida
  6. Clemson, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Washington State
  7. BYU, St. Mary’s, TCU, Colorado State
  8. Oklahoma, Virginia, Florida Atlantic, South Carolina
  9. Northwestern, Mississippi State, Texas, Utah State
  10. New Mexico, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Gonzaga
  11. Nevada, Cincinnati, Drake, Grand Canyon, Boise State, Ole Miss
  12. Utah, Providence, Princeton, James Madison
  13. McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Akron
  14. Vermont, UNC Wilmington, Louisiana Tech, High Point
  15. Morehead State, Oakland, Eastern Washington, Colgate
  16. Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, Southern, Merrimack, South Dakota St., Norfolk State

Last Four Byes: Nebraska, Gonzaga, Nevada, Cincinnati

Last Four In: Boise State, Ole Miss, Utah, Providence

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Indiana State, Seton Hall, Villanova

Next Four Out: Pitt, Butler, Colorado, Xavier

And Then The Next Four After That: SMU, Oregon, St. John’s, Virginia Tech

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Richmond, Ohio State, Kansas State, Syracuse

Bracketology: 2/16 Update

In midweek action, the biggest game was Texas Tech’s blowout of Kansas. That moved the Red Raiders up three lines to a 5 and combined with Iowa State’s win at Cincinnati, swapped the Cyclones and Jayhawks.

Indiana State had a bad loss at home against Illinois State that dropped the Sycamores to a 10 seed. It also puts more pressure on them to win to Missouri Valley Tournament as an at-large bid is not a sure thing.

Texas A&M’s loss at Vanderbilt drops them back to bubble territory; conversely, New Mexico’s win at Nevada gets them off the bubble for now.

South Carolina’s embarrassing loss at Auburn drops them two lines. Not that losing at Auburn is a big deal, but losing by 40 hurts your metrics.

Pitt had a huge win at Virginia that moves them up, not into the field, but “into the conversation”, as they say.

Movers List:

Team2/12 SeedNew SeedRecent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Kansas ↓23L 79-50 at Texas Tech (NET 25, Quad 1-A)
Iowa St. ↑32W 68-59 at Cincinnati (NET 36, Quad 1-A)
Creighton ↓56W 94-72 vs. Georgetown (NET 198, Quad 4)
S. Carolina ↓57L 101-61 at Auburn (NET 6, Quad 1-A)
BYU ↑65W 90-88 vs. UCF (NET 65, Quad 2)
Oklahoma ↓67L 79-62 at Baylor (NET 12, Quad 1-A)
Indiana St. ↓710L 80-67 vs. Illinois State (NET 192, Quad 4)
Michigan St. ↑76W 80-72 at Penn State (NET 98, Quad 2)
Virginia ↓79L 74-63 vs. Pitt (NET 52, Quad 2)
Texas Tech ↑85W 79-50 vs. Kansas (NET 17, Quad 1-A)
Texas A&M ↓810L 74-73 at Vanderbilt (NET 220, Quad 3)
Texas ↑98Idle
Kentucky ↑97W 75-63 vs. Ole Miss (NET 61, Quad 2)
Colorado St. ↓910L 71-55 at San Diego State (NET 18, Quad 1-A)
Mississippi St. ↑ 109Idle
TCU ↑109W 81-65 vs. West Virginia (NET 154, Quad 3)
New Mexico ↑108W 83-82 at Nevada (NET 49, Quad 1-B)
Ole Miss ↓1011L 75-63 at Kentucky (NET 24, Quad 1-A)
Gonzaga ↑1110Idle
Cincinnati ↓1112L 68-59 vs. Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A)
Drake ↑1211W 78-75 at Evansville (NET 175, Quad 3)
Butler ↓12OutL 78-72 vs. Marquette (NET 10, Quad 1-A)
Boise St. ↑Out12Idle
High Point ↓1415L 86-81 vs. USC-Upstate (NET 286, Quad 4)
Morehead St. ↑1514L 69-68 at Little Rock (NET 227, Quad 3)
  1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
  2. Tennessee, Marquette, North Carolina, Iowa State
  3. Kansas, Auburn, Baylor, Alabama
  4. Duke, Wisconsin, Dayton, Illinois
  5. Clemson, San Diego State, Texas Tech, BYU
  6. Creighton, Michigan State, Florida, Florida Atlantic
  7. South Carolina, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Utah State
  8. Texas, Washington State, New Mexico, St. Mary’s
  9. Northwestern, Mississippi State, TCU, Virginia
  10. Texas A&M, Colorado State, Gonzaga, Indiana State
  11. Grand Canyon, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Utah, Nevada, Drake
  12. Cincinnati, Boise State, Princeton, James Madison
  13. Samford, McNeese State, UNC Wilmington, UC Irvine
  14. Akron, Louisiana Tech, Vermont, Morehead State
  15. High Point, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Colgate
  16. Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, Southern, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State

Last Four Byes: Gonzaga, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Utah

Last Four In: Nevada, Drake, Cincinnati, Boise State

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Villanova, Butler, Providence

Next Four Out: Colorado, St. John’s, Pitt, Xavier

And Then The Next Four After That: Seton Hall, Memphis, Virginia Tech, Kansas State

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Oregon, Syracuse, Richmond, SMU

Bracketology 2/12 Update and Weekend Roundup

A busy weekend. Movers:

Team2/8 SeedNew SeedRecent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Tennessee ↓12L 85-69 at Texas A&M (37, Quad 1-B)
Arizona ↑21W 99-79 at Colorado (39, Quad 1-A)
Wisconsin ↓34L 78-56 at Rutgers (86, Quad 2)
Alabama ↑43W 109-92 at LSU (94, Quad 2)
Oklahoma ↓56W 66-62 vs. Oklahoma State (135, Quad 3)
Creighton ↑65W 78-71 at Xavier (52, Quad 1-B)
Kentucky ↓69L 89-85 vs. Gonzaga (24, Quad 1-B)
New Mexico ↓710L 80-77 vs. UNLV (87, Quad 3)
St. Mary’s ↓78W 76-51 at Portland (308, Quad 4)
Colorado State ↓79W 66-47 vs. San Jose State (223, Quad 4)
Utah ↓811L 85-77 vs. Arizona State (127, Quad 3)
TCU ↓810L 71-59 at Iowa State (9, Quad 1-A)
Florida ↑86W 81-65 vs. Auburn (7, Quad 1-A)
Utah State ↑97W 80-61 vs. Boise State (49, Quad 2)
Virginia ↑97W 80-76 at Florida State (97, Quad 2)
Cincinnati ↓1011L 67-62 vs. Houston (1, Quad 1-A)
Michigan State ↑107W 88-80 vs. Illinois (14, Quad 1-A)
Washington State ↑108W 62-56 at Oregon (61, Quad 1-B)
Grand Canyon ↓1011W 94-65 vs. Southern Utah (245, Quad 4)
Ole Miss ↑1110Idle
Boise State ↓11OutL 80-61 at Utah State (28, Quad 1-A)
Texas A&M ↑118W 85-69 vs. Tennessee (6, 1-A)
Mississippi State ↑1110W 75-51 at Missouri (153, Quad 3)
Colorado ↓11OutL 99-79 vs. Arizona (3, 1-A)
Nevada ↑1211W 70-66 vs. San Diego State (19, Quad 1-B)
Providence ↓12OutL 75-72 at Butler (50, Quad 1-B)
Gonzaga ↑Out11W 89-85 at Kentucky (25, Quad 1-A)
Butler ↑Out12W 75-72 vs. Providence (57, Quad 2)
Drake ↑Out12W 74-67 at Bradley (60, Quad 1-B)
Akron ↓1314L 73-59 at James Madison (55, Quad 1-B)
UNC Wilmington ↑1413W 95-65 at Hampton (353, Quad 4)
Morehead State ↓1415W 69-57 vs. Eastern Illinois (320, Quad 4)
High Point ↑1514W 78-62 at Gardner-Webb (192, Quad 3)
Quinnipiac ↓1516L 96-79 at Mount St. Mary’s (229, Quad 3)
Colgate ↑1615W 76-62 at Loyola Maryland (348, Quad 4)
  1. Purdue, Houston, UConn, Arizona
  2. North Carolina, Kansas, Tennessee, Marquette
  3. Iowa State, Alabama, Auburn, Baylor
  4. Dayton, Wisconsin, Duke, Illinois
  5. Clemson, Creighton, San Diego State, South Carolina
  6. BYU, Oklahoma, Florida, Florida Atlantic
  7. Indiana State, Virginia, Michigan State, Utah State
  8. Texas Tech, St. Mary’s, Washington State, Texas A&M
  9. Kentucky, Texas, Colorado State, Northwestern
  10. Mississippi State, TCU, New Mexico, Ole Miss
  11. Gonzaga, Grand Canyon, Cincinnati, Nevada, Nebraska, Utah
  12. Butler, Drake, Princeton, James Madison
  13. Samford, McNeese State, UNC Wilmington, UC Irvine
  14. Akron, Louisiana Tech, Vermont, High Point
  15. Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Colgate
  16. Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, Southern, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State

Last Four Byes: Ole Miss, Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Nevada

Last Four In: Nebraska, Utah, Butler, Drake

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Boise State, Villanova, Providence

Next Four Out: Xavier, St. John’s, Colorado, Memphis

And Then The Next Four After That: Kansas State, Oregon, Richmond, Virginia Tech

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Pitt, SMU, Miami, UCF

Bracketology 2/8 Update

Key results from last night:

  • Auburn‘s blowout of Alabama swaps their seeds; the Tigers are now a 3 and the Tide a 4.
  • Providence‘s win over Creighton moves the Friars into the field with St. John’s becoming the first team out. Creighton drops one line to a 6 with Clemson taking their spot as a 5
  • Northwestern‘s win over Nebraska moves them up to a 9 and drops the Huskers to an 11

Looking at the bracket, the Big East situation is interesting. UConn, Marquette, and Creighton are clearly in. Then you have a group of six teams – Seton Hall, Butler, St. John’s, Providence, Villanova, and Xavier – clogging up the middle of the standings. These teams are all around the cut line and are very difficult to distinguish. As you might imagine, these teams have lots of games remaining against each other. Expect to see Big East teams moving in and out of the bracket frequently over the next several weeks.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold):

  1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
  2. Arizona, North Carolina, Kansas, Marquette
  3. Auburn, Baylor, Wisconsin, Iowa State
  4. Dayton, Alabama, Illinois, Duke
  5. San Diego State, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Clemson
  6. Florida Atlantic, Creighton, BYU, Kentucky
  7. Indiana State, New Mexico, St. Mary’s, Colorado State
  8. Utah, TCU, Texas Tech, Florida
  9. Utah State, Texas, Virginia, Northwestern
  10. Cincinnati, Michigan State, Washington State, Grand Canyon
  11. Ole Miss, Boise State, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Colorado
  12. Nevada, Providence, Princeton, James Madison
  13. Samford, McNeese State, Akron, UC Irvine
  14. Vermont, UNC Wilmington, Louisiana Tech, Morehead St.
  15. High Point, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Quinnipiac
  16. Colgate, Lipscomb, Southern, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State

Last Four Byes: Ole Miss, Boise State, Nebraska, Texas A&M

Last Four In: Mississippi State, Colorado, Nevada, Providence

First Four Out: St. John’s, Butler, Wake Forest, Xavier

Next Four Out: Gonzaga, Villanova, Drake, Virginia Tech

And Then The Next Four After That: Seton Hall, Kansas State, Oregon, Memphis

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Richmond, Miami, Iowa, Pitt

Bracketology 2/7 Update

Key results from last night:

  • Clemson‘s win at North Carolina boosts the Tigers to a 6 and solidifies the Tar Heels as a 2
  • Nevada had a huge win at Utah State that moves them into the field. The Aggies drop two lines to an 8.
  • … and if someone moves in, someone else has to move out, and that someone is Butler. It doesn’t seem fair to drop by losing at UConn, but they were right at the cut line and that loss tipped them to the wrong side.
  • South Carolina‘s win over Ole Miss moves them up a line to a 5. The Rebels missed a chance to get off the bubble.
  • Wake Forest continues to play like a tournament team. And continues to lack a Quad 1 win, so I am keeping them out.
  • Oklahoma had a decisive home win over BYU that moves them up two lines to a 5 and drops BYU to a 6.
  • Iowa State‘s big win at Texas moves them up a line to a 3. Texas drops to an 8.
  • Kentucky demolished Vanderbilt and moved up a line to a 6.
  • Colorado State‘s win over Boise moves them up to a 7 and move the Broncos down to a 10 and into bubble territory.
  • Michigan State had a damaging loss at Minnesota. They’re sliding towards the bubble.
  • Texas Tech‘s loss to Baylor drops them to an 8.
  • St. Mary’s blowout of Pacific moves them up a line to a 7.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold):

  1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
  2. Arizona, North Carolina, Kansas, Marquette
  3. Wisconsin, Baylor, Alabama, Iowa State
  4. Dayton, Illinois, Auburn, Duke
  5. San Diego State, South Carolina, Creighton, Oklahoma
  6. Clemson, Florida Atlantic, BYU, Kentucky
  7. Indiana State, New Mexico, St. Mary’s, Colorado State
  8. Utah, Texas Tech, TCU, Texas
  9. Utah State, Virginia, Florida, Washington State
  10. Nebraska, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Boise State
  11. Northwestern, Grand Canyon, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Nevada, Texas A&M
  12. Colorado, St. John’s, Princeton, James Madison
  13. Samford, McNeese State, Akron, UC Irvine
  14. Vermont, Louisiana Tech, UNC Wilmington, High Point
  15. Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Quinnipiac
  16. Colgate, Lipscomb, Southern, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State

Last Four Byes: Boise State, Northwestern, Ole Miss, Mississippi State

Last Four In: Nevada, Texas A&M, Colorado, St. John’s

First Four Out: Butler, Wake Forest, Villanova, Gonzaga

Next Four Out: Xavier, Providence, Drake, Seton Hall

And Then The Next Four After That: Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Oregon, Richmond

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Memphis, Iowa, Syracuse, Miami