Tag: NCAA

I’m posting this bracket while the AAC and Big 10 Championship games are still in progress. I wish they would move those earlier in the day. It will be interesting to see what the committee does with Purdue. If Purdue loses, I would move Texas to the top line and drop Purdue to a 2. However, because of the timing of the game, the committee may have to make a final decision before the end of the game. This also impacts Penn State; if they beat Purdue, they deserve to move up to a 9. But again, the committee may not be able to consider that because of timing.

I think Houston is a #1 regardless of the outcome of the AAC game, but if Memphis wins, I would move them up a line and move Miami down.

I’ve spent a lot of time looking at the last few teams and trying to make sense of how the committee might view them. And my final answer is to go with Arizona State as my last team in, for one reason: they have five Quad 1 wins, and not one of them was at home. Their resume has a lot of weaknesses; 5-5 against Quad 2 and a Quad 4 loss is not good, and the computers don’t particularly like them. But when push comes to shove, win quality is more important than any other single factor for the committee, and the Sun Devils have it. I think that will make the difference.

Of course I’m always interested in NC State. Their situation seems to have deteriorated in the past couple of days, probably as the bracketologists reflect on their three losses to Clemson and, consciously or unconsciously, are bothered by the Wolfpack being ahead of the Tigers in the pecking order.

But I still think they’re going to make it. Their 7-4 Quad 2 record is very good, and they have no bad losses. Their wins over Duke, Dayton, Vanderbilt, and Furman have aged well as those teams played well down the stretch.

If you’re watching the Selection Show and you want to know when the moment of truth has arrived, here’s what you do. Get a piece of paper and write down these teams: Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Nevada, Clemson, Pitt. Every time one of them is announced – pay special attention to the 10 and 11 seeds – cross it off. When you’ve crossed off six teams, that’s it. The other three are not going to make it.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold):

1. Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue
2. Texas, UCLA, Arizona, Gonzaga
3. Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Xavier
4. Tennessee, Kansas State, Duke, San Diego State
5. Texas A&M, Virginia, Indiana, St. Mary’s
6. Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Memphis
7. Miami, Florida Atlantic, Creighton, West Virginia
8. Arkansas, Utah State, Michigan State, Missouri
9. Northwestern, Boise State, Auburn, Maryland
10. Penn State, Illinois, Iowa, USC
11. Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State
12. College of Charleston, VCU, Drake, Oral Roberts
13. Kent State, Iona, Louisiana, Furman
14. Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont, Grand Canyon
15. Colgate, Princeton, Montana State, UNC Asheville
16. Northern Kentucky, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Howard, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern

Last Four Byes: Iowa, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State

First Four Out: Nevada, Clemson, Pitt, Vanderbilt

With one day left until Selection Sunday, most teams’ fate is sealed. I now have 40 locks, five teams that are Probably In, and five teams in competition for the last spot in the field.

I have to admit a couple of mea culpas. One is, I have “de-locked” Providence, which should never happen. Once a team is a lock, they should stay a lock. But Providence has really fallen apart down the stretch and I now think it’s possible, though unlikely, that they could miss the field.

The other is, I’ve added Vanderbilt to the list of bubble teams. When I looked at it last week, I thought they were too far out to possibly get an at-large bid. With their win over Kentucky, that now seems possible.

On to the lists.

Locks (40):

Big 10 (8) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (4) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (3) – San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

Probably In (5):

90% Chance: Rutgers

80% Chance: Mississippi State, NC State

75% Chance: Providence

70% Chance: Oklahoma State

Last Bid:

At this point, there are five teams who could conceivably hear their names called for the last bid: Nevada, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Arizona State, and Pitt. Of the five, only Vanderbilt is still playing. If they win two more games, they are the SEC champions and there is no more debate. Even if they win today against Texas A&M but lose in the final, I think they will get the bid. But let’s assume Vandy loses today. Then I’m going with Clemson, with Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, and Pitt following in that order.

This is a bit of a gut feel pick. My model says that Nevada has the best resume. But they finished the season really poorly and I think the committee will deduct something for that. I also think there has been a groundswell of support for Clemson from various sources in the media, although maybe that’s just my ACC bias, and that may have an impact on the committee. There may also be an element of unconscious sympathy towards the ACC, especially if they are going to leave Pitt out, as I think they will.

Keep in mind that bid stealing is still possible. Vanderbilt could win the SEC tournament, Ohio State is alive in the Big 10 Tournament, and a couple of teams are still alive in the AAC Tournament who could grab that last bid. If there are multiple bid thefts, I think Oklahoma State is the most likely of the Probables to be left out.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold, tickets punched underlined):

1. Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
2. UCLA, Texas, Gonzaga, Arizona
3. Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Tennessee
4. Xavier, Kansas State, San Diego State, Virginia
5. Indiana, St. Mary’s, Texas A&M, Duke
6. Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Miami
7. Michigan State, Creighton, Northwestern, Florida Atlantic
8. Arkansas, West Virginia, Memphis, Boise State
9. Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Auburn
10. Illinois, Iowa, Penn State, USC
11. Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson
12. College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
13. Kent State, Iona, Yale, Furman
14. Louisiana, Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont
15. Colgate, UNC Asheville, Southern Utah, Montana State
16. Northern Kentucky, Grambling, Norfolk State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson

Last Four Byes: Penn State, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson

First Four Out: Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, Pitt

Moving off the bubble list yesterday was NC State, who moved to a Lock with their win over Virginia Tech.  Although ironically, NC State beat the Hokies so badly that they knocked them out of the top 75 in the NET – which means the Wolfpack’s win in Blacksburg is no longer a Quad 1.  But it doesn’t matter.  They’re in.

Bubble Team Ranking:

In 6 – Utah State

In 5 – Oklahoma State

In 4 – Nevada

In 3 – Penn State

In 2 – Mississippi State

In 1 – Pitt

Out 1 – Rutgers

Out 2 – Arizona State

Out 3 – North Carolina

Out 4 – Wisconsin

Out 5 – Oregon

Out 6 – Michigan

Out 7 – Clemson

Commentary on today’s games:

Utah State – next game today vs. New Mexico (NET 50)

• With a win – this is an interesting one, because right now New Mexico is 50 in the NET, which is the cutoff for a Quad 1 win on a neutral court.  But beating them may knock them down in the NET, making it a Quad 2.  The vagaries of the NET.  I’m not quite ready to call the Aggies a Lock with a win here, but they’re headed in that direction.
• With a loss – by the same logic, if New Mexico wins, they probably will move up in the NET and this becomes a Quad 1 loss for Utah State.  I think they still have a chance and it will depend on what the other teams do.

Oklahoma State – next game today vs. Texas (NET 9)

• With a win – OSU becomes a lock.
• With a loss – OSU finishes their regular season at 18-15.  Losing to Texas on a neutral court doesn’t really hurt you, but the Cowboys are on thin ice as it is.  They will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Nevada – next game today vs. San Jose State (NET 96)

• With a win – this is a Quad 2, just barely.  It helps marginally, I guess, but it’s really more about avoiding the loss.
• With a loss – Nevada is in trouble if they lose this game.  They too will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Penn State – next game today vs. Illinois (NET 33)

• With a win – this is a solid Quad 1 opponent.  I can’t say it makes them a Lock, but they would go to the head of the bubble pack, and the other teams would have to do some extraordinary things to keep the Nittany Lions out.
• With a loss – a Quad 1 loss doesn’t really hurt their resume, but they’re on thin ice as it is.  Probably no better than 50-50 they get in if they lose today.

Mississippi State – next game today vs. Florida (NET 59)

• With a win – Quad 2 opponent.  Every little bit helps, but certainly doesn’t make them a Lock.
• With a loss – I don’t like their chances.  It would depend on what other teams do.

Pitt – next game today vs. Duke (NET 25)

• With a win – I’m not sure my model would agree, but my gut says Pitt is a Lock if they win.  Duke is really playing well right now.  A neutral court win over the Blue Devils is the final validation Pitt needs.
• With a loss – I really don’t know.  I don’t think they’ll make it, but other Bracketologists have them higher for whatever reason.  They certainly look like a tournament team with the “eye test”, but I’m not sure the committee cares.

Rutgers – next game today vs. Michigan (NET 54)

• With a win – it’s a Quad 2, but because Michigan is a fellow bubble team, this win has a little more cachet than, say, Nevada beating San Jose State.  But it certainly doesn’t make Rutgers a lock.
• With a loss – I don’t think they’re going to make it.  I can’t rule it out until I see what everyone else does.

Arizona State – next game today vs. USC (NET 48)

• With a win – it’s a Quad 1 win for now, but similar to the Utah State comment, the act of beating USC may knock them down enough in the NET so that it’s not a Quad 1 anymore.  Beat them, but don’t beat them badly, I guess.  Regardless, it’s a really good win and would move Arizona State toward the head of this pack of teams right around the cut line.
• With a loss – similar to Rutgers, I don’t think they’ll make it, but with their four Quad 1 wins, it can’t be ruled out.

North Carolina – next game today vs. Virginia (NET 30)

• With a win – the Tar Heels move to a 60% chance to make it with a win today.
• With a loss – they’re done.

Wisconsin (regular season over)

• The Badgers have no games left to improve their standing.  Could they possibly make it?  I can’t completely remove a team with six Quad 1 wins.  But I would rate their chances at 10% or less.

Oregon – next game today vs. Washington State (NET 69)

• With a win – a win doesn’t mean much.  Oregon has to do a lot more than beat Washington State if they’re going to make it.
• With a loss – they’re done.

Michigan – next game today vs. Rutgers (NET 43)

• With a win – it’s a solid Quad 1 win and will move the Wolverines up considerably in the pecking order, but their situation would still be precarious.
• With a loss – they’re done.

Clemson – next game today vs. NC State (NET 37)

• With a win – would be a solid Quad 1 for the Tigers, their third win over NC State, and would help cancel out the Tigers’ bad losses.  But it seems unlikely that this win alone will be enough to get the Tigers in.
• With a loss – they’re done.

Quick update on the six bubble teams in action today.

NC State can move to a Lock on my board with a win over Virginia Tech.

North Carolina and Arizona State are fighting to stay alive. The Tar Heels are definitely done if they lose to BC. Arizona State might still have a faint pulse with a loss to Oregon State, but they would be a long shot.

Oklahoma State and Wisconsin are both in similar positions. They are both around the cut line. You can’t rule them out if they lose today, but you can’t say they’re in if they win either. A loss probably hurts more than a win helps. Both are playing conference rivals who are better than their record would indicate.

Then there’s Pitt. The Panthers play Georgia Tech this afternoon. I say they are out if they lose, but there is a lot of disagreement about Pitt among Bracketologists, and not everyone would agree. But it does seem that the community is coming around a bit to my point of view. Only 73 of the 89 brackets on bracketmatrix.com have them in. Jerry Palm of cbssports.com still has them as a 9 seed, which is a fantasy.

It has been a busy weekend in bubble land.

• West Virginia, Auburn, and USC moved up to Locks with their wins over Kansas State, Tennessee, and Arizona State respectively
• Penn State and Oklahoma State got huge wins to move them up in the bubble pecking order
• Nevada had a damaging home loss to UNLV which makes their position precarious
• Mississippi State, Arizona State, North Carolina, and Pitt failed to get the wins they needed to solidify their positions
• Utah State got their first Quad 1 win against Boise State

As I write this, Wisconsin and Rutgers haven’t played yet. Wisconsin’s game against Minnesota won’t help them if they win, but it will hurt them if they lose. If Rutgers can beat Northwestern, I think it will move them to a Lock.

I need to correct and clarify a couple of things from Friday’s post. One, I was unclear about the status of Florida Atlantic. I do consider them a lock. If someone else wins the Conference USA Tournament, the Owls will get in and that will be a bid steal.

Also, I neglected to include Utah State in my list of bubble teams. I’m not sure how that happened, but in any case, they are definitely in that group. In fact, with their win over Boise State, I think they would be in if the tournament started today.

With that, let’s run through the updated lists.

Locks (39):

Big 10 (7) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (5) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (2) – San Diego State, Boise State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

In for Now (2):

With their losses yesterday, I am moving Nevada and Mississippi State down into the bubble group. I am no longer convinced that they would be in if the tournament started today. The only two teams I am certain would be in today are:

Rutgers – I’m moving them to a lock if they can beat Northwestern today.

NC State – they probably benefited from not playing yesterday while a number of bubble teams around them lost. If they beat Virginia Tech on Wednesday, I’ll move them to a Lock.

Bubble Teams (5 bids available, 12 teams):

At this moment, my five bids would go to Nevada, Utah State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Penn State. Or maybe Wisconsin. With their loss to Oklahoma State yesterday, Texas Tech is off the list. Teams are listed in rank order.

Nevada – killer home loss to UNLV. They cannot afford to lose in the quarters of the Mountain West Tournament. Depending on what else happens, they may need to get to the Mountain West final.

Utah State – yes, they only have one Quad 1 win, but there is precedent for that. 8-1 against Quad 2 is outstanding. They are number 21 in the NET. No team ranked in the top 25 in the NET has ever been left out. They’re probably headed for a MWC Tournament semifinal rubber match with Boise State. A win there should clinch it for Utah State.

Mississippi State – they are hanging by a thread. Unless they make a run in the SEC Tournament, they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Oklahoma State – with their win over Texas Tech, I have them in right now, but it’s precarious. They need to beat Oklahoma on Wednesday, and then they’ll get a chance to end all doubt with a quarterfinal against Texas. If they don’t win that, they’ll be sweating it out.

Penn State – the Lions got their second straight big win on Sunday over Maryland. That puts them on the right side of the cut line, but their position is anything but safe. They need to win their first round game in the Big 10 Tournament, at a minimum.

Wisconsin – if they can avoid a bad loss against Minnesota today, their 6 Quad 1 wins will be hard to keep out. Their NET is 78, which would be the lowest to ever get an at-large bid.

Pitt – is it possible that the ACC could get only four teams in? Yup. I don’t see why Lunardi and Jerry Palm have Pitt in. What about their resume is better than, say, Wisconsin or Arizona State? Maybe they know something I don’t about the committee, but looking strictly at their resume, it’s not good enough. I say they have to beat Duke on Thursday or they’re not getting in.

North Carolina – they have to beat Boston College and Virginia to get to the semis of the ACC Tournament. Otherwise they are not getting in. Even that would not be a guarantee; it might take a run to the finals.

Michigan – Jerry Palm has them in right now. I don’t see it. Beat Indiana today, and now we’re talking. My guess is, that won’t be quite enough. They’ll need to get to the semis of the Big 10 Tournament.

Arizona State – they needed to beat USC and they didn’t. They’ll probably play Oregon in the Pac-12 quarters. Consider that an elimination game. My guess is that the winner will need to beat UCLA in the semis to get in.

Oregon – just maybe, if they get to the Pac-12 final.

Clemson – they need to pull for NC State to win on Wednesday, because beating Virginia Tech doesn’t do them any good. They have to beat the Wolfpack or they have no shot. To have a realistic shot, they have to make the ACC Tournament final.