NCAA – Page 3 – Mudville Analytics

Bracketology 2024 – 2/2 Update

February is here, and that means it’s time for Bracketology. So I cranked up the ol’ spreadsheets, and here we go.

There is a long way to go, and lots of time for commentary over the coming weeks, so I will limit my initial comments to the ACC.

North Carolina is tight with Arizona for the last #1 seed right now. A win over Duke this weekend would solidify it.
Duke could be a 3, no worse than a 4.
Clemson is safely in despite their so-so ACC record.
Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest are on the bubble. I have the Cavaliers in by virtue of their five-game winning streak. Virginia can solidify their position with a win at Clemson tomorrow. Virginia Tech needs to win at Miami.
Syracuse, Miami, Florida State, Pitt, and NC State are within shouting distance but will have to do something exceptional down the stretch. Syracuse can maybe get themselves onto the bottom of the bubble with a win at Wake Forest this weekend.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold):

Purdue, Houston, UConn, Arizona
North Carolina, Wisconsin, Marquette, Tennessee
Kansas, Alabama, Iowa State, Dayton
Duke, Illinois, Auburn, Baylor
Creighton, Utah State, Texas Tech, BYU
Clemson, Kentucky, Oklahoma, TCU
Florida Atlantic, South Carolina, San Diego State, Florida
New Mexico, Indiana State, Northwestern, Ole Miss
Colorado State, Michigan State, Utah, Nebraska
Mississippi State, Boise State, St. Mary’s, Texas
St. John’s, Colorado, Grand Canyon, Washington State, Virginia, Oregon
Texas A&M, Providence, Princeton, McNeese State
James Madison, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
UNC Wilmington, Louisiana Tech, Akron, High Point
Morehead State, Youngstown State, Eastern Washington, Quinnipiac
Colgate, Lipscomb, Norfolk State, Southern, South Dakota St., Merrimack

Last Four Byes: Texas, St. John’s, Colorado, Washington State

Last Four In: Virginia, Oregon, Texas A&M, Providence

First Four Out: Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Drake

Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier

And Then The Next Four After That: Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Syracuse

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Kansas State, Memphis, Nevada, Miami FL

Final Bracket

I’m posting this bracket while the AAC and Big 10 Championship games are still in progress. I wish they would move those earlier in the day. It will be interesting to see what the committee does with Purdue. If Purdue loses, I would move Texas to the top line and drop Purdue to a 2. However, because of the timing of the game, the committee may have to make a final decision before the end of the game. This also impacts Penn State; if they beat Purdue, they deserve to move up to a 9. But again, the committee may not be able to consider that because of timing.

I think Houston is a #1 regardless of the outcome of the AAC game, but if Memphis wins, I would move them up a line and move Miami down.

I’ve spent a lot of time looking at the last few teams and trying to make sense of how the committee might view them. And my final answer is to go with Arizona State as my last team in, for one reason: they have five Quad 1 wins, and not one of them was at home. Their resume has a lot of weaknesses; 5-5 against Quad 2 and a Quad 4 loss is not good, and the computers don’t particularly like them. But when push comes to shove, win quality is more important than any other single factor for the committee, and the Sun Devils have it. I think that will make the difference.

Of course I’m always interested in NC State. Their situation seems to have deteriorated in the past couple of days, probably as the bracketologists reflect on their three losses to Clemson and, consciously or unconsciously, are bothered by the Wolfpack being ahead of the Tigers in the pecking order.

But I still think they’re going to make it. Their 7-4 Quad 2 record is very good, and they have no bad losses. Their wins over Duke, Dayton, Vanderbilt, and Furman have aged well as those teams played well down the stretch.

If you’re watching the Selection Show and you want to know when the moment of truth has arrived, here’s what you do. Get a piece of paper and write down these teams: Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Nevada, Clemson, Pitt. Every time one of them is announced – pay special attention to the 10 and 11 seeds – cross it off. When you’ve crossed off six teams, that’s it. The other three are not going to make it.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold):

Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue
Texas, UCLA, Arizona, Gonzaga
Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Xavier
Tennessee, Kansas State, Duke, San Diego State
Texas A&M, Virginia, Indiana, St. Mary’s
Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Memphis
Miami, Florida Atlantic, Creighton, West Virginia
Arkansas, Utah State, Michigan State, Missouri
Northwestern, Boise State, Auburn, Maryland
Penn State, Illinois, Iowa, USC
Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State
College of Charleston, VCU, Drake, Oral Roberts
Kent State, Iona, Louisiana, Furman
Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont, Grand Canyon
Colgate, Princeton, Montana State, UNC Asheville
Northern Kentucky, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Howard, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern

Last Four Byes: Iowa, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State

First Four Out: Nevada, Clemson, Pitt, Vanderbilt

Bracket Update 3/11

With one day left until Selection Sunday, most teams’ fate is sealed. I now have 40 locks, five teams that are Probably In, and five teams in competition for the last spot in the field.

I have to admit a couple of mea culpas. One is, I have “de-locked” Providence, which should never happen. Once a team is a lock, they should stay a lock. But Providence has really fallen apart down the stretch and I now think it’s possible, though unlikely, that they could miss the field.

The other is, I’ve added Vanderbilt to the list of bubble teams. When I looked at it last week, I thought they were too far out to possibly get an at-large bid. With their win over Kentucky, that now seems possible.

On to the lists.

Locks (40):

Big 10 (8) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (4) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (3) – San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

Probably In (5):

90% Chance: Rutgers

80% Chance: Mississippi State, NC State

75% Chance: Providence

70% Chance: Oklahoma State

Last Bid:

At this point, there are five teams who could conceivably hear their names called for the last bid: Nevada, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Arizona State, and Pitt. Of the five, only Vanderbilt is still playing. If they win two more games, they are the SEC champions and there is no more debate. Even if they win today against Texas A&M but lose in the final, I think they will get the bid. But let’s assume Vandy loses today. Then I’m going with Clemson, with Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, and Pitt following in that order.

This is a bit of a gut feel pick. My model says that Nevada has the best resume. But they finished the season really poorly and I think the committee will deduct something for that. I also think there has been a groundswell of support for Clemson from various sources in the media, although maybe that’s just my ACC bias, and that may have an impact on the committee. There may also be an element of unconscious sympathy towards the ACC, especially if they are going to leave Pitt out, as I think they will.

Keep in mind that bid stealing is still possible. Vanderbilt could win the SEC tournament, Ohio State is alive in the Big 10 Tournament, and a couple of teams are still alive in the AAC Tournament who could grab that last bid. If there are multiple bid thefts, I think Oklahoma State is the most likely of the Probables to be left out.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold, tickets punched underlined):

Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
UCLA, Texas, Gonzaga, Arizona
Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Tennessee
Xavier, Kansas State, San Diego State, Virginia
Indiana, St. Mary’s, Texas A&M, Duke
Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Miami
Michigan State, Creighton, Northwestern, Florida Atlantic
Arkansas, West Virginia, Memphis, Boise State
Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Auburn
Illinois, Iowa, Penn State, USC
Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson
College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
Kent State, Iona, Yale, Furman
Louisiana, Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont
Colgate, UNC Asheville, Southern Utah, Montana State
Northern Kentucky, Grambling, Norfolk State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson

Last Four Byes: Penn State, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson

First Four Out: Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, Pitt

Bubble Watch 3/9

Moving off the bubble list yesterday was NC State, who moved to a Lock with their win over Virginia Tech. Although ironically, NC State beat the Hokies so badly that they knocked them out of the top 75 in the NET – which means the Wolfpack’s win in Blacksburg is no longer a Quad 1. But it doesn’t matter. They’re in.

Bubble Team Ranking:

In 6 – Utah State

In 5 – Oklahoma State

In 4 – Nevada

In 3 – Penn State

In 2 – Mississippi State

In 1 – Pitt

Out 1 – Rutgers

Out 2 – Arizona State

Out 3 – North Carolina

Out 4 – Wisconsin

Out 5 – Oregon

Out 6 – Michigan

Out 7 – Clemson

Commentary on today’s games:

Utah State – next game today vs. New Mexico (NET 50)

With a win – this is an interesting one, because right now New Mexico is 50 in the NET, which is the cutoff for a Quad 1 win on a neutral court. But beating them may knock them down in the NET, making it a Quad 2. The vagaries of the NET. I’m not quite ready to call the Aggies a Lock with a win here, but they’re headed in that direction.
With a loss – by the same logic, if New Mexico wins, they probably will move up in the NET and this becomes a Quad 1 loss for Utah State. I think they still have a chance and it will depend on what the other teams do.

Oklahoma State – next game today vs. Texas (NET 9)

With a win – OSU becomes a lock.
With a loss – OSU finishes their regular season at 18-15. Losing to Texas on a neutral court doesn’t really hurt you, but the Cowboys are on thin ice as it is. They will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Nevada – next game today vs. San Jose State (NET 96)

With a win – this is a Quad 2, just barely. It helps marginally, I guess, but it’s really more about avoiding the loss.
With a loss – Nevada is in trouble if they lose this game. They too will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Penn State – next game today vs. Illinois (NET 33)

With a win – this is a solid Quad 1 opponent. I can’t say it makes them a Lock, but they would go to the head of the bubble pack, and the other teams would have to do some extraordinary things to keep the Nittany Lions out.
With a loss – a Quad 1 loss doesn’t really hurt their resume, but they’re on thin ice as it is. Probably no better than 50-50 they get in if they lose today.

Mississippi State – next game today vs. Florida (NET 59)

With a win – Quad 2 opponent. Every little bit helps, but certainly doesn’t make them a Lock.
With a loss – I don’t like their chances. It would depend on what other teams do.

Pitt – next game today vs. Duke (NET 25)

With a win – I’m not sure my model would agree, but my gut says Pitt is a Lock if they win. Duke is really playing well right now. A neutral court win over the Blue Devils is the final validation Pitt needs.
With a loss – I really don’t know. I don’t think they’ll make it, but other Bracketologists have them higher for whatever reason. They certainly look like a tournament team with the “eye test”, but I’m not sure the committee cares.

Rutgers – next game today vs. Michigan (NET 54)

With a win – it’s a Quad 2, but because Michigan is a fellow bubble team, this win has a little more cachet than, say, Nevada beating San Jose State. But it certainly doesn’t make Rutgers a lock.
With a loss – I don’t think they’re going to make it. I can’t rule it out until I see what everyone else does.

Arizona State – next game today vs. USC (NET 48)

With a win – it’s a Quad 1 win for now, but similar to the Utah State comment, the act of beating USC may knock them down enough in the NET so that it’s not a Quad 1 anymore. Beat them, but don’t beat them badly, I guess. Regardless, it’s a really good win and would move Arizona State toward the head of this pack of teams right around the cut line.
With a loss – similar to Rutgers, I don’t think they’ll make it, but with their four Quad 1 wins, it can’t be ruled out.

North Carolina – next game today vs. Virginia (NET 30)

With a win – the Tar Heels move to a 60% chance to make it with a win today.
With a loss – they’re done.

Wisconsin (regular season over)

The Badgers have no games left to improve their standing. Could they possibly make it? I can’t completely remove a team with six Quad 1 wins. But I would rate their chances at 10% or less.

Oregon – next game today vs. Washington State (NET 69)

With a win – a win doesn’t mean much. Oregon has to do a lot more than beat Washington State if they’re going to make it.
With a loss – they’re done.

Michigan – next game today vs. Rutgers (NET 43)

With a win – it’s a solid Quad 1 win and will move the Wolverines up considerably in the pecking order, but their situation would still be precarious.
With a loss – they’re done.

Clemson – next game today vs. NC State (NET 37)

With a win – would be a solid Quad 1 for the Tigers, their third win over NC State, and would help cancel out the Tigers’ bad losses. But it seems unlikely that this win alone will be enough to get the Tigers in.
With a loss – they’re done.

Bubble Action 3/8

Quick update on the six bubble teams in action today.

NC State can move to a Lock on my board with a win over Virginia Tech.

North Carolina and Arizona State are fighting to stay alive. The Tar Heels are definitely done if they lose to BC. Arizona State might still have a faint pulse with a loss to Oregon State, but they would be a long shot.

Oklahoma State and Wisconsin are both in similar positions. They are both around the cut line. You can’t rule them out if they lose today, but you can’t say they’re in if they win either. A loss probably hurts more than a win helps. Both are playing conference rivals who are better than their record would indicate.

Then there’s Pitt. The Panthers play Georgia Tech this afternoon. I say they are out if they lose, but there is a lot of disagreement about Pitt among Bracketologists, and not everyone would agree. But it does seem that the community is coming around a bit to my point of view. Only 73 of the 89 brackets on bracketmatrix.com have them in. Jerry Palm of cbssports.com still has them as a 9 seed, which is a fantasy.

Bubble Update 3/5

It has been a busy weekend in bubble land.

West Virginia, Auburn, and USC moved up to Locks with their wins over Kansas State, Tennessee, and Arizona State respectively
Penn State and Oklahoma State got huge wins to move them up in the bubble pecking order
Nevada had a damaging home loss to UNLV which makes their position precarious
Mississippi State, Arizona State, North Carolina, and Pitt failed to get the wins they needed to solidify their positions
Utah State got their first Quad 1 win against Boise State

As I write this, Wisconsin and Rutgers haven’t played yet. Wisconsin’s game against Minnesota won’t help them if they win, but it will hurt them if they lose. If Rutgers can beat Northwestern, I think it will move them to a Lock.

I need to correct and clarify a couple of things from Friday’s post. One, I was unclear about the status of Florida Atlantic. I do consider them a lock. If someone else wins the Conference USA Tournament, the Owls will get in and that will be a bid steal.

Also, I neglected to include Utah State in my list of bubble teams. I’m not sure how that happened, but in any case, they are definitely in that group. In fact, with their win over Boise State, I think they would be in if the tournament started today.

With that, let’s run through the updated lists.

Locks (39):

Big 10 (7) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (5) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (2) – San Diego State, Boise State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

In for Now (2):

With their losses yesterday, I am moving Nevada and Mississippi State down into the bubble group. I am no longer convinced that they would be in if the tournament started today. The only two teams I am certain would be in today are:

Rutgers – I’m moving them to a lock if they can beat Northwestern today.

NC State – they probably benefited from not playing yesterday while a number of bubble teams around them lost. If they beat Virginia Tech on Wednesday, I’ll move them to a Lock.

Bubble Teams (5 bids available, 12 teams):

At this moment, my five bids would go to Nevada, Utah State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Penn State. Or maybe Wisconsin. With their loss to Oklahoma State yesterday, Texas Tech is off the list. Teams are listed in rank order.

Nevada – killer home loss to UNLV. They cannot afford to lose in the quarters of the Mountain West Tournament. Depending on what else happens, they may need to get to the Mountain West final.

Utah State – yes, they only have one Quad 1 win, but there is precedent for that. 8-1 against Quad 2 is outstanding. They are number 21 in the NET. No team ranked in the top 25 in the NET has ever been left out. They’re probably headed for a MWC Tournament semifinal rubber match with Boise State. A win there should clinch it for Utah State.

Mississippi State – they are hanging by a thread. Unless they make a run in the SEC Tournament, they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Oklahoma State – with their win over Texas Tech, I have them in right now, but it’s precarious. They need to beat Oklahoma on Wednesday, and then they’ll get a chance to end all doubt with a quarterfinal against Texas. If they don’t win that, they’ll be sweating it out.

Penn State – the Lions got their second straight big win on Sunday over Maryland. That puts them on the right side of the cut line, but their position is anything but safe. They need to win their first round game in the Big 10 Tournament, at a minimum.

Wisconsin – if they can avoid a bad loss against Minnesota today, their 6 Quad 1 wins will be hard to keep out. Their NET is 78, which would be the lowest to ever get an at-large bid.

Pitt – is it possible that the ACC could get only four teams in? Yup. I don’t see why Lunardi and Jerry Palm have Pitt in. What about their resume is better than, say, Wisconsin or Arizona State? Maybe they know something I don’t about the committee, but looking strictly at their resume, it’s not good enough. I say they have to beat Duke on Thursday or they’re not getting in.

North Carolina – they have to beat Boston College and Virginia to get to the semis of the ACC Tournament. Otherwise they are not getting in. Even that would not be a guarantee; it might take a run to the finals.

Michigan – Jerry Palm has them in right now. I don’t see it. Beat Indiana today, and now we’re talking. My guess is, that won’t be quite enough. They’ll need to get to the semis of the Big 10 Tournament.

Arizona State – they needed to beat USC and they didn’t. They’ll probably play Oregon in the Pac-12 quarters. Consider that an elimination game. My guess is that the winner will need to beat UCLA in the semis to get in.

Oregon – just maybe, if they get to the Pac-12 final.

Clemson – they need to pull for NC State to win on Wednesday, because beating Virginia Tech doesn’t do them any good. They have to beat the Wolfpack or they have no shot. To have a realistic shot, they have to make the ACC Tournament final.

Bracketology 2/19

Another week of college basketball is in the books. This week the NCAA came out with their top 16 seeds, which is kind of a sanity check for us bracketologists. I was more or less on target with one exception; I had UConn as a 3 seed over Marquette. I can certainly see why the committee would pick Marquette; they are 13-3 in the Big East, while UConn is only 9-7. However, UConn has in incredibly impressive non-conference resume; they beat Alabama, Iowa State, and Oregon on neutral courts, and they won at Florida, and the closest of those four games was 15 points.

But I do think the committee has a recency bias, and you might say that’s appropriate, although in my opinion games in November ought to count the same as games in February.

Here’s an update on ACC teams.

Virginia – headed for a 3 at this point, and more likely to move down than up.

Pitt – I have them as an 11 after the loss to Virginia Tech. That is lower than most prognosticators. Despite their ACC record, their overall resume isn’t that good. They have 6 sub-Quad I losses – the most of any serious tournament contender. They better not stumble down the stretch.

Miami – A solid 5 and more likely to go up than down. Historically, 5s get upset much more than 4s in the tournament. Favorable schedule remaining.

Clemson – I see them as not even close right now. Lunardi’s had them close to the cut line, but I don’t see how. Their NET is 80, they have no Quad I-A wins, and three Quad 4 losses. I’m not aware of any team receiving an at-large bid with three Quad 4 losses. They must win at NC State or at Virginia to even be relevant, and in my opinion they have to win out to get in.

NC State – I have the Wolfpack as a 10 seed, maybe one spot lower than the consensus. They’re not quite a lock, but they would have to fall apart to miss the tournament.

Duke – I have them as an 8. Very close to the 8/9 cut line in my model. They finish with NC State at home and at UNC, so still could move up.

North Carolina – I have the Tar Heels as the first team out, and in a way I think that makes them sound closer than they really are. As the commentators never tire of pointing out, they are 0-9 against Quad I opponents, and they WILL NOT get in without a Quad I win. They have two more chances with home games against Virginia and Duke. If they lose those, forget about it. If they can win one of those, and their two road games against Notre Dame and FSU, then it might come down to the ACC Tournament. My sense is, they won’t get in without two Quad I wins.

Everybody else – not close. Virginia Tech and Wake Forest would have to jump 10-15 teams to get in. Each needs to win out, and then probably do some damage in the ACC Tournament.

And now for the bracket:

Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
Texas, Arizona, Baylor, UCLA
Tennessee, UConn, Gonzaga, Virginia
Marquette, Indiana, Iowa State, Xavier
St. Mary’s, Kansas State, Miami, San Diego State
Creighton, Arkansas, Maryland, Northwestern
TCU, Texas A&M, Auburn, Iowa
Providence, Kentucky, Michigan State, Duke
Illinois, Boise State, Florida Atlantic, Memphis
Nevada, Rutgers, NC State, Oklahoma State
Missouri, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Pitt, USC, Utah State
College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
Kent State, Liberty, Utah Valley, Southern Miss
Yale, Iona, UC Irvine, Eastern Washington
Youngstown St., Colgate, Vermont, UNC Asheville
Samford, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Morehead State, Howard, Alcorn State, Merrimack

Last Four Byes: NC State, Oklahoma State, Missouri, West Virginia

Last Four In: Mississippi State, Pitt, USC, Utah State

First Four Out: UNC, Wisconsin, North Texas, Oregon

Next Four Out: Coll. of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), New Mexico, Penn State, Texas Tech

Officiating in College Basketball

I’m going to engage in a time-honored tradition among college basketball fans: I’m going to complain about the refs.

I take as my illustration the example which is freshest in my mind, last night’s NC State-Syracuse game. But you can start from wherever you are. It really doesn’t matter; the problems are everywhere. I may sound like a whining State fan, and I probably am, but I promise you I could have used just about any other game to illustrate these points.

What I see as the essential problem is this: the officials call too many fouls. Many of the fouls they call are unnecessary. As a result, the officials are too intrusive and have too much influence over the outcome of the game.

How many times do you watch a close college basketball game, and what you remember about it most vividly, and what is talked about after the game, is not the on-court action but the officiating? Doesn’t that indicate that something is wrong? It isn’t supposed to be this way, is it? How often does this happen in baseball, or soccer, or tennis, or golf? That what you remember is a call (or non-call), not a play? Admittedly this does happen quite a bit in football, but I would still say that officiating is more influential in basketball than in any other sport.

Certainly some of the problem is not the fault of the officials or the rules; it’s built into the game of basketball. If you think about it, basketball confines ten people in a very small space. Five of them really want to get somewhere, and the other five really want to keep them from getting there. As a result, there is going to be contact. And that’s a problem, because basketball is supposed to be a “flow” game like soccer or hockey. The ball moves, the players move, the whole game is characterized by free-flowing movement. Excessive contact prevents that, so in order to preserve the integrity of the game, there have to be a lot of restrictions on contact. Certain forms of contact are acceptable, but many are not, and result in a foul. It’s a situation that is naturally set up to result in officials having to make a lot of calls.

The irony of the situation is that the intent of the foul rules is not to interrupt the flow of the game; it is in fact the opposite of that. The foul rules are intended to disincentivize unwanted contact so as to allow the game to flow. In other words, to let basketball be basketball.

These things are destined to always be in tension. On one hand, excessive contact turns the game of basketball into something other than what it was intended to be, and it messes up the balance between offense and defense. On the other hand, the enforcement of the rules around physical contact requires an intrusive officiating presence, with three officials further crowding the already confined space where the players are, watching their every move, and frequently interrupting the game to whistle a violation. The thing that is supposed to preserve the flow of the game has to interrupt the flow of the game to do it.

So my point is, I get it. It’s hard to find the perfect balance between these things, and it always will be. My argument is that college basketball currently leans too heavily towards calling fouls in situations where the contact is insignificant and has little outcome on the play; or where the contact is not an outcome of the natural flow of the game, but is instead a charade.

As Exhibit A, I’d like to reference back-to-back plays in last night’s NC State-Syracuse game. Take a look at the two plays that start around the 9:58 mark in the condensed game video:

In the first play, NC State’s Ebenezer Duwuona is guarding Syracuse’s Jesse Edwards. Edwards works his way into the painted area, very close to the basket. Duwuona moves with him, keeping his body between Edwards and the basket. Duwuona is clearly trying to stay close to Edwards but remain perfectly vertical so as to avoid fouling. When Edwards elevates for the shot, there is a slight amount of body contact, that if anything was created by Edwards jumping into Duwuona. At no time does Duwuona do anything to initiate contact, other than stay close to Edwards. The contact is minimal and appears not to affect Edwards in any way. But it’s a foul on Duwuona.

Folks, there’s nothing to see here. It’s a no-call. I’m not a basketball rules expert, so I’m not trying to say it’s not the correct application of the rule. But if the rules say that’s a foul, then the rules are bad. That contact is incidental and the offensive player needs to be able to finish through it – which Edwards does.

Then you go down to the other end, and the same situation plays out. This time, Edwards is the defender against DJ Burns. Edwards does move his right arm downward a bit as Burns takes the shot, but is there any contact there? I don’t see it. I suppose it’s possible that Edwards made contact with Burns’ left arm, but I’m not able to see it. In any case, you get the idea. This kind of thing happens all the time in college basketball. A defender is making no attempt to defend the play, other than keeping himself between the shooter and the basket. Contact is either non-existent or, at most, gentle. And yet, fouls are called. Action is disrupted. Players foul out. And games are decided.

The other situation I’d like to highlight occurs just two plays later at the 10:34 mark. Burns catches the ball in good post position. He takes a couple of dribbles and goes up for a shot. The defender – who is 6’11” and weighs 230 pounds – hurls himself backwards and goes supine onto the floor. And he is rewarded for this behavior by getting an offensive foul called on Burns.

I find this entire situation intolerable. Burns has done everything right. He has outworked Edwards for good post position. He has turned and gone up strong for a shot. Edwards has done nothing in particular defensively. He has allowed Burns to get good post position and he hasn’t attempted to make a play on the ball. And he knows it. He knows that Burns is about to score on him. And instead of responding by attempting to block Burns’ shot, or simply letting him have the shot that he has earned and trying to get in rebounding position, he has one more trick up his sleeve. He attempts, in what can only be described as a performative act rather than a basketball play, to make it appear as though Burns has barreled right through an innocent defender. And it works.

It’s not Edwards’ fault. People respond to incentives. So as long as this behavior is rewarded, of course defenders are going to do it, and they should. The problem is the rules, or the interpretation of them, that incentivize these plays. The entire concept is flawed. Think about the very language we use to refer to this play – we call it “drawing” a charge. Why do we use that term “draw”? It’s because we know that this is not an attempt to actually play defense; it’s an attempt to lure the offensive player and the officials into playing their appointed roles in a scripted performance.

We’ve all seen it a million times. The offense has put itself in an advantageous position and is moving toward the basket. The defender resorts to inserting himself into the path of the offensive player who is in the process of leaping or shooting, in hopes that the offensive player will knock him over. Oftentimes the player crosses his arms over his chest in a kind of “brace for impact” position. The whole thing is contrived. It’s not defense, it’s theater; and we fall for it.

There are offensive fouls that occur naturally in the course of play. A dribbler will hook a defender with his arm in an attempt to get by. A screener will move into a defender. A defender who is actually guarding someone by moving his feet in a defensive stance will get knocked over by an overly aggressive driver. I have no problem at all with those calls. What I have a problem with is the non-defensive play where the defender sets himself up like a bowling pin in the lane and then launches himself backward in an attempt to create the appearance of something.

Get in a defensive stance. Make a play on the ball. Get a steal. Block a shot. Contest a shot. Hack him and make him earn it from the line. Or get out of the way and let him score. But this performative nonsense must be stopped. The solution is to just stop calling it. We don’t call it within the restricted area; how about if we increase that area by a few feet? How about if officials exercise some discernment about guys who are seven feet tall being knocked off their feet rather than actually contesting a shot?

To me, the key differentiator should be, what is the defender’s intent? Does the defender get knocked over in the process of actually guarding the offensive player, or is the defender attempting to get knocked over and “draw” a charge? You may say it’s asking too much for the officials to determine intent, but is it? As a fan, can’t you tell the difference between a defender who is trying to guard someone and a defender who is trying to draw a charge? If you can tell, don’t you think the best referees in college basketball should be able to tell too? It would send a clear message to the players: stop messing around and play basketball. Isn’t that what we want?

After the game, Kevin Keatts was uncharacteristically direct about his displeasure with the officiating. He said exactly what I was thinking: “let the players decide the game”. Yes. Of course, the officials would probably say, the players do decide the game – by fouling or not fouling in critical situations. That’s true, in a sense, but the spirit of Keatts’ comment is certainly correct. We should err on the side of letting players play and keeping officials out of the way.

There is much else that could be said about officiating as well. The ego-driven histrionics of the some of the officials; the incessant reviews that bog down the ends of games; and the blatant missed calls such as the one that gave Virginia a win over Duke that they shouldn’t have had. But this is the thing that bothers me most.

Bracketology 2/12

It’s been a busy weekend in college basketball. Here are the Bracketology headlines:

Texas moves up to the top line. Their 10-5 Quadrant 1 record, including 6 wins against Quadrant 1A, is too good to ignore. Their blowout of West Virginia drops the Mountaineers to a 9.
Tennessee drops down to a 3 after another buzzer-beater loss, this time at the hands of Missouri. The Tigers jump up to a 7.
Creighton is on fire and they jump to a 5.
Oklahoma State gets a huge win at Iowa State and jumps to a 7.
Providence is now firmly in bubble territory after their fourth loss in their last five games.
Mississippi State gets a huge win at Arkansas and jumps into the field.
Kentucky remains in the bracket after losing at Georgia, but just barely.
New Mexico drops out of the field with a bad loss at Air Force.

In the ACC,

NC State moved up a line after blowing out Boston College
UNC solidified their position a bit by blowing out Clemson
Miami and Pitt avoided bad losses with wins over Louisville and FSU
Virginia Tech and Wake Forest kept their faint hopes alive with wins over Notre Dame and Georgia Tech

A lot of bracketologists still have Clemson in. I don’t see it. They have two Quad 4 losses. At-large teams with two Quad 4 losses are extremely rare. Since 2016, there have been four: Providence 2017, Providence 2018, Baylor 2019, and Arizona State 2019. The first three of those teams had much stronger Quad 1 wins than the Tigers do. Arizona State 2019, well that was one of the oddest and most controversial selections in recent memory. Clemson is down to 77th in the NET. No team ranked lower than that has been selected as an at-large team since at least 2016, although Rutgers 2022 was exactly 77th. But they had six Quad 1 wins.

We can’t talk about yesterday without talking about Duke-Virginia. It’s odd to be in the position of defending Duke for being on the wrong end of a call, but that was a miscarriage of justice. Considering the circumstances – the importance of the situation, the fact that the replays clearly showed what happened and the officials had all the time they needed to review, and the fact that the correct call was made on the floor but was reversed – I think that’s the worst officiating decision I’ve ever seen.

From the explanations, I gather that the officials reasoned that the foul occurred not on the arm but with the body, and the body contact happened after the buzzer, therefore no foul. There are two things wrong with that. 1) That’s not the rule. 2) Yes, the foul absolutely did take place on the arm.

Let’s not overthink this. It doesn’t require knowledge of arcane rules. A guy went up for a shot and was hacked in the act before the clock ran out. Anyone with eyes could see it. Get the call right, and Duke very likely has a massive road win. With that win, Duke is probably a 7 seed, maybe a 6. As it is, I have them as a 9. That’s lower than Lunardi and most others, but if you forget about the name on the jersey and look at the blind resume, that’s where they belong.

Here’s the current bracket, with automatic bids in bold:

Alabama, Purdue, Kansas, Texas
Houston, Baylor, Arizona, UCLA
Virginia, Tennessee, UConn, Xavier
Gonzaga, Kansas State, Marquette, Indiana
Iowa State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State, Creighton
Miami, Illinois, TCU, Arkansas
Florida Atlantic, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Auburn
Maryland, Rutgers, Nevada, Michigan State
West Virginia, NC State, Iowa, Duke
Memphis, Northwestern, Boise State, Providence
Mississippi State, UNC, Pitt, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Oregon
College of Charleston, Oral Roberts, Drake, Liberty
Southern Miss, VCU, Sam Houston, Kent St.
Yale, Iona, Furman, UC Santa Barbara
Youngstown St., Eastern Washington, Colgate, Vermont
UNC Asheville, Northwestern St., Alcorn St., Howard, Morehead St., Fairleigh Dickinson

Last Four Byes: Boise State, Providence, Mississippi State, UNC

Last Four In (Play-in games): Pitt, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Oregon

First Four Out: USC, New Mexico, Utah State, Wisconsin

Next Four Out: College of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), North Texas, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall

And Even the Next Four Out After That: Arizona State, Florida, Wake Forest, Clemson

Bracketology 2023 – 2/9 Bracket

The last Bracketology post I made was on the morning of March 12, 2020. That was the day the college basketball world stopped and everything got cancelled.

Thankfully, things have returned to something like normal, and I’m going to give this Bracketology thing another try here in 2023. I’ll do regular bracket updates, the occasional bubble watch, and some targeted commentary for ACC teams.

Here’s my bracket as it stands right now. Automatic bids in bold:

Purdue, Alabama, Kansas, Houston
Arizona, Texas, Baylor, Tennessee
UCLA, Virginia, Xavier, UConn
Kansas St., Gonzaga, Iowa St., Marquette
Miami, Indiana, San Diego St., St. Mary’s
Arkansas, TCU, Creighton, Auburn
West Virginia, Rutgers, Illinois, Duke
Florida Atlantic, Michigan St., Nevada, Iowa
Maryland, Providence, Northwestern, Boise St.
Memphis, NC State, Missouri, New Mexico
Oklahoma St., Pitt, Kentucky, USC, UNC, Oregon
College of Charleston, Oral Roberts, Liberty, Southern Miss
VCU, Drake, Sam Houston, Kent St.
Yale, Iona, Furman, UC Santa Barbara
Colgate, E. Washington, Youngstown St., Vermont
UNC Asheville, Northwestern St., Morgan St., Fairleigh Dickinson, Maryland Eastern Shore, Southern

Last Four Byes: Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma St., Pitt

Last Four In (Play-in games): Kentucky, USC, UNC, Oregon

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Utah St., Mississippi St.

Next Four Out: College of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), Florida, Clemson, Wake Forest